Planning for a Musharraf in civilian garb

If he steps down as Army chief, Musharraf may find himself newly vulnerable to a hostile civilian politics.

from the November 23, 2007 edition

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But now, with the courts neutralized and an election planned for Jan. 8, opposition parties are faced with a choice. They could try to secure whatever gains they have made, participate in the elections, and move forward into a new set-up of, at least on paper, civilian rule. But they could also boycott elections completely and continue in the streets with their fight against Musharraf.

"The opposition," says Mr. Haider, "had been following the public sentiment, which was uncompromising after March," when the street movement against Musharraf began. But now, Musharraf seems to be calculating that a draw of a share in the power in the elections will entice some reconsider their positions.

The president was in Saudi Arabia this week to renew contacts with former Prime Minsiter Nawaz Sharif, who lives in exile there. Mr. Sharif, a political heavyweight, has thus far refused to negotiate politically with Musharraf.

Meanwhile, at least one major opposition party, the Islamist Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, has stated it will not boycott the polls. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party has announced it will make a decision on the elections this week.

Planning for a non-political Army

Musharraf, some say, is supremely confident of his clout in the Army even after his retirement.

"It might well be true," an editorial in Pakistan's leading weekly news magazine said, "that General Musharraf is so comfortable with the corps commander and they with him that they jointly do not countenance any reduction in his clout even after he quits as Army chief."

Others like Mr. Masood believe "the Army will be more interested in military matters" now that they are free to disengage from the heavy political baggage accumulated during Musharraf's eight-year rule. A "depoliticized Army," some say, is best suited to act against the growing internal threat from Taliban-inspired militants.

It is accepted that the Army has always controlled civilian politics in full view or behind the scenes in Pakistan, and many had hoped that the mobilization against Army rule would have borne a cure for the civil-military dynamic, which has always favored the Army.

Civil society, including journalists, rights groups, and students, are experiencing a momentum for civilian democracy not seen in decades despite wavering political support.

Pakistan, says Masood, is still in the thick of the historic moment where its civil military power dynamic may be altered. "Whether it will be revolutionary or evolutionary is still a question."

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