• AEXPECTATION_P2
• csmli-1
• stem-1

• AEXPECTATION_P1
• csmli-2
• stem-2

Shifting expectations game for '08

The Iowa caucuses are now clearly up for grabs on the Democratic side, among three top candidates.

from the November 23, 2007 edition

Page 2 of 2

Page 1 | 2

In a way, the biggest maverick in the race is former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. He has a healthy lead in national polls for the Republican nomination, but he trails in Iowa and New Hampshire. His stated strategy is to hold his campaign firepower for the big-delegate primaries where he expects to do well, such as Florida (Jan. 29) and California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois (all Feb. 5).

While playing down his effort in Iowa and New Hampshire, Mr. Giuliani has nevertheless campaigned in both places, though not much until recently. Through Nov. 21, he spent 19 days in Iowa this year, versus 60 days for Mr. Romney, according to the Iowa Democratic Party. (Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has surged into second place among Republicans in Iowa in the past month, has visited 58 times.) Romney has also spent big in the early states, building an organization and airing television ads early and often. Giuliani, in contrast, has husbanded his big war chest, airing his first TV ad of the campaign just this week – in New Hampshire.

The Giuliani campaign insists it can lose the first several contests and still win the nomination.

"What we see is there's the possibility of two paths" to the nomination, campaign director Mike DuHaime told reporters last week. He acknowledges that the early states can help a candidate build momentum, which is why Giuliani has made some effort in those states. "But we also recognize that with so many large delegate-rich states moving up so early in the process, that it's impossible to think that it [will] be over after only three states vote," he says.

By dampening expectations for the early states, Giuliani is holding open the possibility of a "surprise" victory in an early state – perhaps Michigan or South Carolina, where he and Romney are neck and neck. Still, by not making the concerted, long-term effort that the early states have come to expect, Giuliani may indeed be shut out there. Yet if he still goes on to win the nomination, he will have broken the mold: Since the advent of the modern primary system in 1972, no candidate has lost the first three contests and still won the nomination.

As for Romney, the only way he can beat expectations in the early going is not just to win, but to win convincingly.

In 2000, George W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses in a multicandidate field with 41 percent of the vote. "If Romney were to hit one-third or more, that looks pretty good," says Mr. Goldford, the political scientist. "But if he stays around 27 or so, then you have to ask, has he peaked?"

1 | Page 2