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Election a tinderbox for Lebanon
Failure to choose a presidential candidate this week could result in the formation of rival governments. Also at stake: regional leverage for Syria, Iran, and the US.
By Nicholas Blanford | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the November 21, 2007 edition
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BEIRUT, Lebanon - Lebanon's grave political crisis peaks this week with feuding politicians in last-ditch negotiations to elect a new president, knowing that failure risks tearing the country apart.
Lebanon's parliament was scheduled to convene Wednesday to elect a new head of state. But with both camps apparently still far from a deal over a compromise candidate, the election was postponed until Friday. If no agreement is reached by midnight Friday – when the incumbent, the pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud, steps down – Lebanon faces the possibility of two rival governments being established, which many fear could result in bloodshed.
"I think we are in for an extended period of tense stalemate. There is no quick solution and that's unfortunate for Lebanon," says Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Center in Beirut.
Since the countdown to the presidential election began in September, Beirut has hosted a flurry of foreign diplomats and politicians seeking to mediate between the rival factions. The stakes are high, for what happens in Lebanon in the coming days will have ramifications throughout the Middle East.
If opposition wins, US will lose key toehold
Lebanon is a tiny sliver of Mediterranean real estate – two-thirds the size of Connecticut – and home to only some 4 million people. But its complex sectarian makeup and geostrategic position, wedged between enemies Syria and Israel, grants it a pivotal role in helping shape the struggle for control of the Middle East.
The Lebanese government is supported by the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia, which seek to disarm Hizbullah, the powerful Shiite party, and keep Lebanon within a pro-Western orbit – free from Syrian influence and an obstacle to Iran's regional ambitions. Also, Lebanon remains the one bright hope in the Bush administration's waning attempts to promote democracy in the Middle East.
The Lebanese opposition, spearheaded by Hizbullah, prefers to keep Lebanon aligned with Iran and Syria, distrusting US Middle East policy which it believes is fundamentally rooted in protecting Israel from its Arab foes.
If the opposition prevails, then Syria and Iran will have gained extra regional leverage at the expense of the US losing its Levantine toehold.
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