UN debate: More anti-Iran measures?

The lack of a single vision could stall a third set of sanctions against Tehran.

from the November 16, 2007 edition

Page 2 of 2

Page 1 | 2

With divisions in the Security Council apparently reemerging, one possible outcome experts foresee is a shift in how Western countries pressure Iran – away from Security Council measures and toward separate sanctions by the economies most involved in Iran. But even that approach raises question marks, since it is not clear how fully on board Germany is.

At the same time, Iran's internal political situation is having more of an impact on how Tehran pursues its nuclear program, some Iran analysts say. "The Iranian nuclear dossier isn't just entangled in the Security Council; it's all tied up in the domestic debate in Iran as well – and that's heating up," says Alex Vatanka, an Iran expert with Jane's Information Group in Washington.

Iran's elites are increasingly anxious about signs of Iran's souring relations with the rest of the world. And with parliamentary elections coming up in March, a tug of war is intensifying between the country's pragmatists and more ideological forces allied with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mr. Vatanka says.

But others say it is a mistake to put too much stock in the ability of Iran's civilian elites to sway the country's policies. "We shouldn't overestimate the influence of the country's elites over the governing elites, nor that of the legislative over the executive," says Mr. Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Another factor playing a part in determining how the Iran debate proceeds is a perception both in the United States and abroad that the Bush administration is actively considering military strikes against Tehran's nuclear facilities.

Takeyh says he suspects ElBaradei will "play for time" with his report because the leader of the UN's nuclear watchdog has decided his role is to head off a US war on Iran. "At this point, he thinks he's the line between civilization and disorder," Takeyh says. "If ElBaradei were to say in this report that the lack of full cooperation makes further talks a waste of time, his view is he'd be setting things up for [Vice President Dick] Cheney and those of his outlook on this."

One conclusion of those of the "Cheney outlook" is that Iran is playing the international community while it clandestinely proceeds in its nuclear pursuits. "Time is usually on the side of the proliferator, and in the case of Iran, they have used the time productively," says John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the UN who is now at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Mr. Bolton, speaking earlier this week at an event for his new book, "Surrender Is Not an Option," said there was a time three or four years ago when tough economic sanctions might have worked. But now, he says, Tehran has made such progress in its nuclear program that only two options remain: regime change and targeted military strikes against key nuclear facilities.

By regime change, he says he means exploiting fragilities in Iran's domestic situation. Still, "I don't believe you can turn regime change on and off like a light switch," he says. "That is why the military option has to remain on the table."

1 | Page 2