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Nigeria arrests alleged Al Qaeda operatives

Despite worries that radicalization and conflict make the region hospitable for terrorist groups, there is little evidence of Al Qaeda activity.

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There has also been a move toward the more austere and exclusivist Islam practiced by Al Qaeda in Nigeria and other parts of the continent in recent years, a trend that some scholars argue makes radicalization more likely in the area.

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Writing earlier this year, Israeli scholar Moshe Terdman argued that while radicalization is proceeding, that it's unlikely that major Al Qaeda influence will be exerted in Nigeria and its West African neighbors with significant Muslim populations.

A radicalization has taken place with the introduction of Shari'ah in twelve Nigerian states… In the case of Nigeria, it appears that aggressive missionary work in the North by Saudi Wahhabis has played a decisive role in escalating the conflict between Christians and Muslims.

The social conflicts in the coastal states of West Africa are increasingly developing along a North-South divide that is largely congruent with the geographical division between Christians and Muslims. This is particularly noticeable in Nigeria, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire.

In the short term, however, it is unlikely that extremist Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa will become an important and integral part of al-Qaeda's network … Al-Qaeda's call on African Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa after the Mombassa (Kenya) attacks in 2002 on African Muslims to join their cause was met with decidedly more indignation than approval.

Yet the possibility of the development of a genuine African variant of terrorism can not be decisively ruled out. The necessary ingredients – lack of economic perspectives, social deprivation, a loss of cultural identity political repression and a dysfunctional state – are virtually omnipresent in sub-Saharan Africa.

Whatever the real risks, since Sept. 11, 2001, the United States has been enhancing its military ties with West Africa, both as part of its counterterrorism efforts and to protect oil production in states such as Nigeria.

Last month, the US created a new military command, called Africom, "to build regional security and crisis-response capacity in support of US government efforts in Africa."

Nigeria has been a major beneficiary of US military aid in the past five years. The Bush administration is requesting $5.35 million for "peace and security" funding for the country in its 2008 budget request, and $1.4 million in military financing for the country. Both numbers are up from 2006, though comparable 2007 numbers were not provided.

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