Pakistan's final arbiter: the Army

The military is Musharraf's chief remaining constituency.

from the November 9, 2007 edition

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A clear break in the ranks of the Army has never been witnessed; the military has never staged a coup against one of its own. But previously, subtle pressure from the high-ranking Army generals has influenced military dictators to step down.

"General Ayub Khan," Pakistan's first military ruler, "had to resign in similar circumstances when there was a popular street movement," observes Kamal Matinuddin, an independent analyst and retired lieutenant general in the Army.

Musharraf has surrounded himself with loyalists in the Army and intelligence forces – sometimes superseding more senior officers with his favorites – a practice that has even resulted in a few resignations. While such blatant favoritism has been successful for previous military leaders, a history of Pakistani military rules shows that the formula comes with a shelf life. Eventually, faced with unrest and crises of legitimacy, military rulers have had to step down.

A familiar pattern of military rule

The eight years of Musharraf's rule have followed a pattern that can be seen in all previous military regimes. Foreign aid has come pouring in and catalyzed economic growth rates to compete with the world's fastest industrializing nations. Musharraf has matched the GDP growth rates of up to 9 percent seen during previous military rules in the 1960s and 80s.

More important, the Pakistani Army, in all three of its previous military rules, has been able to beef up its arsenal and become stronger as an institution, often thanks to a large volume of military aid from the United States. During General Zia-ul Haq's rule, Pakistan was the leading recipient of military aid after Israel and Egypt. During Musharraf's rule, the Pakistani Army has improved its conventional military equipment with the $7 billion in military aid the regime has received from the US since 2001. Pakistan is America's third largest client for military equipment today.

Now, the clear messages from America after the emergency can't be very encouraging for the Army as an institution. President Bush conveyed his thoughts to Musharraf over the phone last night: "Take your uniform off." The Pentagon also suspended military talks with the country immediately after the announcement.

"Suspension of these talks isn't in the interest of either side," observes Sehgal.

Still, another scenario remains. Were President Musharraf to quit as Army chief and remain president, his designated successor, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, would take over the military. Such a resolution, analysts say, would probably satisfy Washington, as well as the military.

But many analysts doubt that Musharraf would ever accept such a climb down, fearing an agitated opposition.

"The irony is that the more the situation gets worse, the more he seems to want to hold on to power," says Talat Masood, a retired lieutenant general and analyst. "My worry is that if he doesn't come around soon, it might be too late for an amicable solution."

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