Musharraf fears democracy, not extremism

The West must not let this crisis spiral out of control.

from the November 6, 2007 edition

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Things turned for the worse last spring when Musharraf tried to end the independence of the judiciary by firing the uncooperative head of the Supreme Court. Thousands of lawyers and secular pro-democracy activists poured into the streets to defend the Constitution. The game was up; fear of extremism was no longer enough to stop the call for democracy.

Hoping to provide a smooth transition to civilian rule, Washington brokered a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto. Before the ink was dry, Musharraf let it be known that he would take off his uniform only after he was reelected. But the Supreme Court frustrated Musharraf's plans, hinting that it would not approve his reelection while he was still head of the military.

It was to prevent the Supreme Court from issuing its damning verdict that Musharraf put Pakistan under martial law. Pakistanis see through Musharraf's ruse and will gather in opposition.

An isolated Musharraf will look to his military to keep him in power. Soldiers fighting Islamic extremists, plus an insurgency in Baluchistan and a war with Al Qaeda and Pashtun tribesmen, will now also face angry throngs in their own streets. This will not benefit the war on terror nor is it a mission the military covets. In the past, Pakistan's military has overthrown governments that have sent soldiers to fight crowds. In 1969, the military removed Gen. Ayub Khan once antigovernment opposition reached a crescendo. His successor, Gen. Yahya Khan, quickly promised – and eventually implemented – free and fair elections and return to civilian rule. Almost a decade later, General Zia ul-Haq overthrew Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto before he could order the Army to suppress anti-government protesters.

Musharraf's interests are no longer those of his military, and the two are now on a collision course. Generals can still end this crisis by going back to the deal Washington brokered with Ms. Bhutto, but only if it does not include Musharraf. Removing Musharraf will send demonstrators home and the Army to its barracks.

The longer Musharraf stays in power the more Pakistan will look like Iran in 1979: an isolated and unpopular ruler hanging on to power only to inflame passions and bring together his Islamic and pro-democracy opposition into a dangerous alliance.

A disastrous outcome in Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state with weak institutions and rife with extremist ideologies, violence, and deep ethnic and social divisions, will be far worse than what followed the Iranian revolution.

The West cannot afford to let this political crisis spiral out of control. Western leaders must keep the pressure on Musharraf, reach out to the Pakistani Army, and seriously plan for a post-Musharraf Pakistan.

• Vali Nasr is a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University; adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of "The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future."

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