U.S. troop losses plunge in Iraq

"There are a million things still wrong in Iraq, but it is extremely good news in what remains a very difficult war," he says.

In Iraq, there's never a simple answer to any question, and the explanation for why security is improving is no different.

The so-called Anbar Awakening, in which Sunni sheikhs in Anbar Province came together to fight Al Qaeda in Iraq, and an apparent retreat of the Shiite militia Jash al-Mahdi have lessened the number of bombings and other violence, US military commanders in Iraq say. In addition, the proliferation of what is known as "concerned citizens" – average Iraqis typically paid by the US to maintain security in their neighborhoods – has changed the security situation on the ground in places like Babil and Diyala Provinces, where both US and Iraqi officials say people have tired of the violence.

But the senior military official says recent discoveries of major weapons caches – five in the past week – and the disruption of bombmaking cells by going after their leaders have also had an impact.

"We've really focused on attacking the leadership," the senior defense official says. "We're really focusing on trying to take down that enemy line of operation."

But the situation there is still very wait-and-see. Pentagon officials say violence in Iraq is down considerably since the last of the surge forces arrived there in early summer, and incidents during the holy month of Ramadan – typically a time of heightened violence – were the lowest in three years, according to Maj. Gen. Richard Sherlock, director of operational planning at the Pentagon, during a briefing last week. (Iraq's Interior Ministry has reported that the nation's death toll in October is at the lowest level in 18 months.)

"While this is indeed encouraging, Al Qaeda in Iraq, other extremist groups, and criminal elements in Iraq continue to be major threats," he said. "The likelihood that those groups will attempt spectacular attacks, especially in places like northern Iraq and in and around different areas of Baghdad, remains significant."

Lawrence Korb, a former top Pentagon official who is now at the liberal Center for American Progress, another think tank in Washington, says he is hopeful but not altogether confident that a drop-off in troop losses represents a turning point in Iraq.

"We've seen these lulls before," says Mr. Korb, a critic of US policy in Iraq. He's hoping this one will be permanent.

More US losses in '07 than '06

There have been more US combat-related fatalities in Iraq in the first 10 months of this year, 713, compared with all of last year, in which 704 US service members died, he notes.

Army Gen. David Petraeus, the top commander in Iraq, has said he is planning to cut the number of US brigades in Iraq from 20 to 15 by sometime next summer, with some reductions coming later this year. About 170,000 US forces are in Iraq now. A brigade has about 3,500 service members. Many analysts say that plan is doable, but suggest that, given the current competency of the Iraqi security forces, the second phase of a withdrawal is a much farther reach.

Increased security could unravel when more US troops are sent home, says Korb.

"I think it offers you hope if you're willing to keep a very large number of troops in there for a very long time."

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