The cost of American bellicosity toward Iran

Last week's sanctions pave the way toward war.

from the October 30, 2007 edition

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Iran, which has not invaded any country since the 18th century, is demonized today as an "Islamofascist" state bent on Israel's destruction. Rhetoric aside, in reality, Iran regards Israel as an "out of area" threat and not germane to Iran's national security calculus except in the context of Israel's meddling in Iran's ethnic politics and the like.

The nuclear standoff itself has propelled Iran more and more toward a nationalist self-identity, which, in turn, makes more relevant ancient history still fresh in collective memory: To wit, Persian leader Cyrus the Great's famous edict in 539 BC that allowed exiled Jews to return to their homeland.

Iran is not by definition opposed to the idea of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In fact, several top Iranian leaders, including the former president, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are on record stating that Iran will abide by the will of Palestinians.

Iranian television has been featuring programs sympathetic to the Holocaust, Jews are in the Iranian parliament, and new Jewish centers have appeared in Tehran and other cities – these facts weigh against the Hitlerian image of Iran. Indeed, the combined weight of past history, Iran's immediate national security concerns, and shared interests with the US regarding the current regimes in Baghdad and Kabul, belie the simplistic, Manichaean image held as an article of faith by many Israeli politicians and pundits.

Israel should stand down from repeated threats against Iran that simply fuel the current turmoil in the troubled Middle East. The more Iran is subjected to such threats, the more likely such threats become self-fulfilling prophecies. Iran is on record declaring its antipathy toward obtaining nuclear weapons. But faced with bellicose attitudes from Israel and the US, it will be pushed toward seeking nuclear deterrence.

Any military strike on Iran – sold as the only way to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons – will have tragically ironic and disastrous consequences. Iran will surely leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, suspend its cooperation with the IAEA, and strive to acquire the atomic bomb. Israel's own long-term interests will thus be put at risk in the event of a US-Iran showdown, which the Muslim world will undoubtedly attribute to Israel's machinations. For sure, nationalistic Iranians will then erase any memory of their Jewish-sympathetic history.

Kaveh L. Afrasiabi teaches international relations at Bentley College and is the author of books on Iran's foreign and nuclear policies.

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