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Clinton's lead is sweeping, but not clinched

Her campaign manager says as the nominee she could win over many GOP women.

By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the October 19, 2007 edition

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Washington - To hear Mark Penn tell it, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is doing so well in her presidential campaign that up to 24 percent of Republican women may defect to the Democratic ticket next year.

The New York senator's top campaign strategist attributes that bombshell of a possibility, which he gets from his internal campaign polling, to the "emotional element" of potentially having the first woman presidential nominee in American history.

"That actually will be a major unexpected factor here that will throw the Republicans for a loop," Mr. Penn told reporters at a Monitor breakfast Thursday.

But, Penn stressed at the outset, there's nothing inevitable about a Clinton nomination, insisting that the campaign is taking nothing for granted. So even as he touts a stream of statistics that portray the most glowing of prospects for the former first lady, he asserts that "the race is certainly not over" and that her team is not getting complacent.

"I really feel in the campaign there's absolutely no sense of that," he says, adding that "that the campaign is working hard every day."

In national polls of Democratic primary voters, Senator Clinton now typically comes in ahead of her top opponent, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, by 20 to 30 percentage points or more. She's winning in nearly every demographic, Penn says, noting that she has a strong base of support among women.

In the earliest primary states – New Hampshire and South Carolina – Clinton also has comfortable leads over Senator Obama, deep into double digits. But then there's Iowa, which holds caucuses that could come before any of the Democratic primaries, and polls show a tight contest among Clinton, Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. And even if Clinton is no Howard Dean – the maverick former governor of Vermont who looked set to win the Iowa caucuses in 2004, only to come in third and drop out of the race within weeks – no one will forget the pivotal role Iowa played four years ago in scrambling the Democratic field.

Penn says Clinton came into the 2008 Iowa race with a disadvantage: Before she announced her candidacy, she had to avoid appearing there, lest she look too transparently political. Meanwhile, Senator Edwards had in effect been campaigning there for years and built up an extensive organization. And Obama, with his ability to draw big crowds, also grabbed his share of hearts there early.

Now, Penn says, Iowans are getting to know her, and she is competitive. Polling in Iowa on the caucuses is difficult, as they are a low-turnout affair. And in each caucus, if a candidate does not reach a 15 percent threshold of votes, a caucus goer must find another candidate who does. So not only is the first choice important, so is the second. And, says Penn, "I think the people of Iowa are a long way from making their final decisions."

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