Will Bhutto boost Musharraf?

Pakistan's exiled former leader decides Friday whether to join the embattled president in a power-sharing deal.

from the October 5, 2007 edition

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In return, she would promise that the members of her Pakistan People's Party (PPP) would not resign from the federal or provincial parliaments in protest against Musharraf's candidacy as president and Army chief – as some opposition parties already have. This would be crucial to Musharraf's legitimacy as president, since the president is elected by these legislative bodies, not the people.

Technically, Musharraf doesn't need the PPP to be reelected. His supporters have a majority, though experts say that's due to previous voter fraud. But if all opposition parties walked out, the elections would appear to be a farce.

The hope is that the alliance would bring stability to Pakistan, which has lurched from crisis to crisis since Musharraf unsuccessfully attempted to sack the chief justice of the Supreme Court in March. But it raises the question of whether Musharraf has been cornered into a choice that could ultimately be his undoing.

Would a Bhutto-Musharraf deal bring stability?

Though his regime has the sheen of a democracy, Musharraf's power clearly comes from his ties to the military, which is the most influential institution in Pakistan. In taking off the uniform, experts say, he is not vulnerable to a new coup – the top Army brass are all his allies, and many have been pushing him toward a wholly civilian role for months, says a Western official. They worry that his drop in popularity has hurt them, too, denting the Army's previously spotless reputation.

Instead, becoming a civilian president means Musharraf must be solely a political figure, and he has virtually no support base or political apparatus. At first, he would still maintain the substantial powers he moved to the president's office during his term, but with no major political backing, it is unclear how he could hold on.

Moreover, though Musharraf and Bhutto have invested months – some reports say years – into a potential deal, it remains to be seen how the two would coexist politically. "Musharraf has always ruled with all power concentrated in him," says Sajjad Naseer a political scientist at the Lahore School of Economics. "Bhutto is a strong personality and she won't be like the other prime ministers Musharraf is used to."

Some observers suggest the deal merely continues a long tradition of power passing hands by backroom brokering and military coups, not popular will.

"Pakistani politics has been reduced to a series of elite bargains," says Rasul Baksh Rais, a political expert at the Lahore University of Management Sciences.

The fact that Bhutto apparently has decided to return in this fashion rather than with the support of a movement, he says, is testament to a political elite that is increasingly divorced from popular sentiment. He adds, "She recognizes her inability to mobilize the masses any longer."

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