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Clinton moves up in polls and money

She widened her lead among Democrats in polls and led in fundraising for the quarter.

from the October 4, 2007 edition

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Polls' importance on the rise

Now that the first nominating contests are within shouting distance – expected to take place right after New Year's – polling data will grow in importance, as the media seek to handicap how candidates are doing.

"By the end of December, we'll have a lot of state polls in early states, and they will be significant," says Stephen Wayne, a political scientist at Georgetown University in Washington.

But even then, as the longtime 2004 Democratic frontrunner Howard Dean knows, polls taken a few weeks before caucuses and primaries can be misleading. Mr. Dean, now national Democratic chairman, seemed poised to win the crucial Iowa caucuses, and came in a stunning third place. His campaign crashed after that.

So if Obama were to win the Iowa caucuses, Clinton's air of inevitability will evaporate.

The Republicans' bankrolls

On the Republican side of the ledger, some of the top candidates had yet to report totals, thus making the shape of the GOP nomination race less clear than the Democratic side.

Late entrant Fred Thompson, the former US senator from Tennessee, pulled in a respectable $8 million. Sen. John McCain of Arizona brought in $5 million – enough to stay in the game after his campaign imploded over the summer but probably not enough to avoid taking public financing.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney reportedly will announce about $10 million in third-quarter fundraising, plus a donation from his personal bank account of $6 million or $7 million.

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was expected to report impressive third-quarter fundraising – but nothing close to that of the top Democrats.

Mr. Romney's supplementary self-funding, a move he has taken each quarter, has appeared not to hurt him with voters in early states, where he is running well, despite low numbers in national polls.

The emphasis on early money, for all the candidates, not only reflects a need to impress the media and political insiders with a concrete benchmark of success. It also shows how the condensed primary schedule for this presidential election has made early money essential.

In previous years, a candidate could do well in the early states and have time to raise enough money to compete in the later contests. Now that is no longer so, and the dash for cash has taken on global proportions.

"That's why we're seeing the push to raise money from expats overseas," says Stephen Medvic, a political scientist at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "Any rock they can look under to get some money, they're looking under it."

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