Russia flexes new muscle in Europe
Its resurgence means confronting the US and the EU on key issues, including Kosovo's independence.
from the October 4, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 3
How Russian resurgence affects EU
Russian maneuvering on Kosovo is just part of a new geopolitical game that Putin has opened in the past six to eight months in the European neighborhood – one seeking to restore Russia's traditional sense of being a great nation, taking a tougher line on Russia's sphere of influence, and ending what many Russians felt was national humiliation during the 1990s, as Moscow struggled to adjust to post-Soviet realities.
Many experts in Europe have been slow to acknowledge Russia's resurgence – and its divisive effects on Europe's attempts to achieve a common foreign policy. But that is changing, largely due to recent Russian political, economic, and security moves, including opposition to the proposed US missile shield, Russia's cyber attack on Estonia, Gazprom's control of gas to Europe, spy scandal disputes with Britain, Russian bomber violations of Norwegian airspace, Moscow's reticence to sanction Iran on uranium enrichment, and Russia's exploding of the largest-ever nonnuclear bomb last month.
"Europe's strategic partnership with Russia isn't working properly," says Thomas Gomart, an expert with the Paris-based IFRI. "It is clear more and more that Russia is the biggest issue for Europe in the next decade. Moscow is the new player in setting up a multipolar world weighing against the US. What we haven't answered is whether Russia is a partner or a threat."
American diplomats assert categorically that Moscow knows the proposed missile shield, which would be hosted in part by Poland and the Czech Republic, is actually designed for Iranian missile capability. But they say Putin continues to treat it as a threat to Russian security.
European nations and the NATO alliance have not yet set limits on what enlargement of the European Union means – but Russia has been stiffly fighting EU and NATO enlargement in Ukraine, Belarus, and the Caucasus.
Moscow created jitters last winter with warnings about withholding crucial gas deliveries that make up 26 percent of Europe's total supply. But Monday, as Putin acknowledged he could stay in power – Russia also issued a statement through Gazprom that Europe will not have to worry about gas shipments since it will develop the Shtokman fields 600 miles offshore in the Barents Sea.
To be sure, experts say, Russia has been struggling itself over the past decade – after a half-century of being at the center of the cold war. Putin took over a Russia with a weak government, and has been steadily recentralizing authority in the Kremlin. But holding the world's largest natural gas reserves and substantial oil reserves in a hot energy market, Russia is quickly developing cash assets. Putin's aim is to end Russia's humiliation and restore its sense of greatness, experts say. A key part of that is countering US dominance.
"Putin took over as very pro-West, but soured over all the criticisms of his policies," says Pierre Lorrain, a French writer in Paris and longtime Russian expert.
"For him, Russia is a great power, and it will be back as one of the biggest powers. Putin wants to be the man that makes that turnaround. He knows the Russian people think the rest of the world wanted Russia weak. So it is important for him not to give up any more ... of Russia's power."
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