Russia flexes new muscle in Europe
Its resurgence means confronting the US and the EU on key issues, including Kosovo's independence.
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"For him, Russia is a great power, and it will be back as one of the biggest powers. Putin wants to be the man that makes that turnaround. He knows the Russian people think the rest of the world wanted Russia weak. So it is important for him not to give up any more ... of Russia's power."
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Until 2005, the Kremlin made clear distinctions between NATO, which it disfavored, and EU enlargement, which it saw as a natural economic progression. But in recent years, as the EU swelled to 27 countries, Putin and Moscow have been less accommodating.
"It is difficult for Russia to cope with new developments of the former satellites," says Laure Delcour of IRIS in Paris. "EU and NATO enlargement created tremendous changes in 10 to 15 years. Russia can't cope with these changes yet. It takes a lot of time to digest enlargement. For Russia, NATO is a problem of interference in the near abroad."
A strategy of deepening divisions
Inside the EU itself, divisions over Russia are especially stark. Former Soviet satellite states like Poland are far more concerned than EU members like Germany and France – though that may be changing somewhat as well. French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who meets Putin Oct. 9, recently termed his handling of Kosovo a form of "brutality."
The Germans in particular have been divided over the meaning of a resurgent Russia – with figures like former foreign minister Gerhard Schröder actively pursuing a pro-Russia policy that would center Berlin between Moscow and Washington. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, on the other hand, has taken a tough line with Russia's newly assertive behavior.
Last February in Munich, Putin disparaged the 1988 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty and the use of NATO forces outside UN mandates, as well as "unilateral illegal actions" – a reference to the Iraq war. It was a clear call for a multipolar world, which US Defense Secretary Robert Gates later parried by saying, "As an old cold warrior, one of yesterday's speeches almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time. Almost."
Yet one senior German official told the Monitor, "We publicly came out with Gates, but about half my colleagues in the building agreed with Putin."
Some diplomats say that Russia is reviving an old strategy of sowing division to boost its influence.
"I have to hand it to Russia, they have the greatest diplomats in the world," says a senior US diplomat. "I think they enjoy stirring the pot, sitting back, and watching everyone struggle over these European questions." A senior European diplomat intimately involved with Kosovo admits that "Russia's hardened position on Kosovo is a wonderful way for Putin to split the EU and to create difficulties for the US."
Mr. Lorrain says he believes that despite the remonstrations, Putin is committed in the long run to democracy, Russian style. "People like Putin know NATO is not a threat. There's no causus belli, nothing between the EU and Russia that could lead to war. But governments need to think of worst-case scenarios."
