Roiled Pakistan prepares for vote

A ruling clearing the way for Musharraf to run for another term spawned weekend protests. Opponents may appeal before the presidential election on Oct. 6.

from the October 1, 2007 edition

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Yet these disruptive tactics are themselves symbols of how impotent the political opposition has become during Musharraf's tenure.

By the numbers, they cannot prevent Musharraf's reelection. Pakistani presidents are elected in a poll of members of the national parliament and provincial assemblies.

In these bodies, Musharraf has the votes to win, thanks to the disputed results of the previous general election in 2002, which stacked the various legislatures with his supporters.

"The fact that some elements in the political landscape are supporting this … shows how institutions have decayed under this rule," says Mr. Masood, the analyst.

Pressure on opponents

Protests like the ones that occurred this weekend, though, will increase the pressure on political opponents to do something, says Samina Ahmed, an Islamabad-based security analyst for the International Crisis Group. "Will they come up to the expectations of civil society or not?"

But Musharraf, too, is increasingly dealing from a position of weakness. His falling public approval at home – 38 percent, according to one poll – has resulted in mounting pressure from abroad. Western governments want him to show some signs of a move toward legitimate democracy.

Bowing to this pressure, he has vowed to resign as Army chief if he is reelected. Though he has reorganized the Army hierarchy in an attempt to ensure that that the Army would remain loyal to him, taking off the uniform risks separating him from his true power source.

"Once he takes off the uniform, he will be vulnerable," says Mr. Mahmood, the columnist. "He has no real [popular] support base, which means he'll have to depend on others."

As evidence of this, Musharraf has tried to placate some of his opposition. Benazir Bhutto, head of Pakistan's largest party, the Pakistan People's Party, has been in sporadic talks with the president in past months, as has Fazlur Rahman, the leader of the Islamist opposition.

It presents a picture of a weakened president and weak politicans leaning on each other to share the spoils of power, and Ms. Bhutto has already taken a hit in public opinion for dealing with Musharraf.

What happens between now and Oct. 6 could set the tone for what happens in months to come, experts say. With parliamentary elections set for early next year, the run-up to this week's presidential elections will offer a window into whether Pakistan's political parties will accept Musharraf as the legitimate president or not. Says Ms. Ahmed: "We need to wait and see what happens in the next few days."

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