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For voters, 'tough' now trumps 'nice'

The front-runners for each party's nomination are also perceived by voters as the 'toughest' in their lineups.

from the September 28, 2007 edition

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In a recent poll by Diageo/Hotline, GOP voters were asked which traits best described Mr. Giuliani. After the top answer (25 percent) – "will protect the US against terrorist attacks" – the next was "has the best chance of beating the Democratic nominee" (13 percent).

On the Democratic side, there is no doubt that Clinton's experience in being on the winning side in two hard-fought presidential campaigns – and having her husband at her side now as her top strategist for her own campaign – works to her advantage. While voters tell pollsters they want "change" and the "new kind of politics" that Obama is promising, when push comes to shove, so far they are going with nominees who project a sense that they will do whatever it takes to win in November 2008.

"If the price of winning the White House was walking over their grandmothers to get there, Clinton and Giuliani wouldn't even bother to remove their shoes," writes political analyst Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

Of course, national polls at this stage in the game can be misleading. Voters who do not live in early-primary states may not have given a lot of thought to their party's nomination race, and so, analysts warn, the shape of the race should change dramatically when the earliest contests begin. For example, in the Iowa caucuses, home of the first nominating contest, polls of Democrats show a close race among Clinton, Obama, and former senator John Edwards of North Carolina. A Clinton loss there could knock her off her national front-runner status in a flash.

In attributing personal qualities to candidates, some voters may not have thought enough about the particulars of the contestants to give a fully reasoned response. "The default position for some voters in both parties is to attribute the positive qualities to the front-runner, in the absence of any other compelling information or evidence," says Carroll Doherty, Pew's director of survey research.

Still, if you're former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and only 2 percent of GOP voters give your name when the word "tough" is mentioned – as the Pew survey found – that's a problem. His campaign knows it is, but has yet to come up with a solution. Governor Romney can talk tough – such as calling for the US prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, to be doubled, as he did in a debate – but his smooth delivery and image takes away from the message.

"Romney has the kinder, gentler, blander demeanor," says Todd Gitlin, author of "The Bulldozer and the Big Tent," which analyzes what the parties are looking for in their new leaders. But, he adds, Romney "certainly has the same aspiration" – to come across as tough. Romney, though still far down in the national polls, is topping early-primary state polls and is expected to post strong fundraising numbers for the third straight quarter, and therefore remains a strong contender for the nomination.

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