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The conservatives are restless. Enter Newt Gingrich (maybe).

The former Republican House speaker, who on Thursday launches American Solutions for Winning the Future, said he would be inclined to run if his aides could raise $30 million in campaign pledges in October.

from the September 27, 2007 edition

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"If Fred Thompson had come to be the consensus candidate, there would be no need for Newt to contemplate running," says Mr. Tyler. "Why would he run if conservatives had coalesced around Fred Thompson? The fact is they haven't."

In his interview on "Fox News Sunday," Gingrich said his decision to enter the race would hinge on his ability to drum up $30 million in campaign pledges in the first three weeks of October. He said his longtime adviser, Randy Evans, will outline his strategy at a press briefing Monday.

"I want the [financial] commitments first – I don't want to go out on personal ambition," Gingrich said in the Fox interview, adding that he could decide by late October. "If we ended up with that level of pledges, I don't see as a citizen how you can turn that down."

Still, $30 million is a high target for a single month. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani raised far less – about $17 million – in the entire second quarter of the year. No GOP candidate raised more.

"If he did do $30 million in a month, it would be earth-shattering," says Republican consultant Tony Fabrizio, who suspects the goal was set unrealistically high to prolong Gingrich's influence while offering cover for an escape. "It gives him an excuse to not get into the race."

Gingrich is fourth or fifth in national polls of Republican voters, behind Mr. Giuliani, Senator McCain, and Thompson but tied at times with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. If he declares, Gingrich would have to quickly assemble a campaign team and would face obvious headwinds, including a messy marital history and a reputation as a partisan.

"He's the type of candidate who in the general election would have a very hard time appealing to independent voters, much less Democrats," says Merle Black, a professor at Emory University in Atlanta and the author of "Divided America: The Ferocious Power Struggle in American Politics."

Mr. Black compared Gingrich with Barry Goldwater, the late Arizona senator who birthed the modern conservative movement but never won the presidency. "Goldwater didn't do anything to moderate his positions or extend his appeal to centrist voters," says Black. "Gingrich is kind of a modern version of that."

Gingrich himself has predicted a Democratic victory next year. Some analysts say his flirtation with the 2008 race is meant to influence party strategy while paving the way for a more likely candidacy in 2012, a year of presumably brighter GOP prospects.

"This nomination fight appears to be pretty wide open, and I think he recognizes that void and is trying to fill it – with ideas" if nothing else, says Mr. Reed, the GOP strategist. "Don't underestimate Newt Gingrich. Democrats did in 1994, and they got put out to pasture for 10 years."

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