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| Taiwanese rallied on the streets of Kaohsiung on Sept. 15 to support the island-nation's bid for UN representation. Jonathan Adams |
UN bid puts Taiwan on skids with China
Taiwan's push for a seat in the UN has complicated cross-strait relations and rattled Washington.
from the September 25, 2007 edition
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On the surface, Washington's stance puts it in an odd position: Joining with an authoritarian regime to oppose a democratic vote in Taiwan. But analysts say that's just realpolitik at work. The US may cast itself as the global champion of democratic values, but in East Asia, as elsewhere, it has more pressing strategic concerns. And Washington can ill afford to wage a war with an increasingly strong Chinese military.
"The US doesn't want any scope for miscalculation that would require American flyboys and sailors to go to that part of the world," says Steve Tsang, director of the Taiwan Studies Programme at Oxford University.
Taiwan is also a unique case: The US military is the ultimate security guarantor of the island's democratic choices. But the US is not bound to defend the island in all circumstances. The Taiwan Relations Act, a domestic US law, merely requires Washington to offer the island weaponry to defend itself and for the White House to notify Congress if hostilities break out.
Beyond that, any US administration is free to define the extent of its commitment to Taipei. Former US diplomat Chas Freeman perhaps says it best: Taiwan "does not have a blank check that it can fill out in American blood," he wrote in a 1996 New York Times editorial.
This time around, the Bush administration sees the UN referendum as a move by Taiwan to unilaterally change the cross-strait "status quo." What's more, Washington views the referendum's use of "Taiwan" as a violation of the spirit of President Chen Shui-bian's past pledges to the US not to change the country's name.
So it is putting Taipei on public notice that it can't rely on US military muscle to back up its latest push for greater recognition.
"I don't think the US is trying to intervene in Taiwan's democracy," says Andrew Yang, a security expert at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei. "They are trying to emphasize that if you decide [to go ahead with the referendum], we will not be responsible for the consequences."
The result – whether coordinated or not – is something akin to a "good cop, bad cop" routine in which Washington and Beijing have joined ranks against Taipei. China rattles the saber, while the US tries to reason with its island ally.
Washington's public lectures have sparked indignation in Taipei. Chen Ming-tong, head of Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council, acknowledged that the UN bid had likely thrown a wrench in cross-strait talks on the Olympic torch and other issues. But he insisted that China's bullying disrespect for the Taiwanese people is ultimately to blame.
"The criticisms are unfair," says Mr. Chen. "Can you imagine, our people go to peacefully cast their vote to show their will to join the UN, and people say that will cause disaster? What kind of world is that?"
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