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Al Qaeda leader promises new video ahead of 9/11 anniversary

US officials remain 'skeptical,' while analysts say any new message from bin Laden likely won't contain 'major surprises.'



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By Dan Murphy / September 7, 2007

The propaganda and media wing of Al Qaeda said on a militant website that Osama bin Laden, the group's leader and chief organizer of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, will soon appear in a new videotape, the Associated Press reported.

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It would be the first new footage of Mr. bin Laden in almost three years and is apparently timed to extract maximum propaganda value from the sixth anniversary of his group's most successful terror attacks.

The announcement and photo appeared in a banner advertisement on an Islamic militant Web site where al-Qaida's media arm, Al-Sahab, frequently posts messages.

One difference in his appearance was immediately obvious. The announcement had a still photo from the coming video, showing bin Laden addressing the camera, his beard fully black. In his past videos, bin Laden's beard was almost entirely gray with dark streaks.

The anniversary has always been a major media event for al-Qaida — a chance for it to drum up support among extremists, tout itself as the leading militant group and show off its continued survival.

"They've always gone out of their way to commemorate it," said Ben Venzke, chief executive officer of IntelCenter, which is based in Alexandria, Va. "Historically the anniversary of 9-11 has never been drawn to attacks. It's drawn to video releases."

The banner ad announcing the scheduled video tape with the picture of bin Laden with what appears to be a dyed beard can be found at lauramansfield.com, the website of an analyst who closely tracks Al Qaeda propaganda. ABC News reports that US officials say they doubt a new videotape will in fact be released.

Federal law enforcement authorities say that another Web site had posted a message on Sept. 2, promising "a special gift to be delivered on the blessed day of the invasion of Manhattan."

But U.S. officials are skeptical the tape will show a new message from bin Laden. One said, "We will believe it when we see it."

Nevertheless many media organizations and outside analysts are taking the claims seriously. Reuters says the video would be notable if it showed that bin Laden remains alive and in good health after years of speculation that he might be ailing.

His long silence has prompted two schools of thought among intelligence officials and security analysts.

Some suspected he was limiting his appearances to maximize their impact, perhaps saving his next one to coincide with a dramatic attack. Others say bin Laden, aged 50 and believed to suffer from a serious kidney ailment, may be too sick or too tightly pinned down in his hiding place to smuggle out a tape

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