Thompson to face high expectations

The former senator plans to officially kick off his presidential bid Thursday.

from the September 5, 2007 edition

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During the spring, the Thompson team put out signals that the campaign would launch around July 4. Then he delayed, sparking talk that Thompson really did not have the fire in the belly for a grueling presidential run. After all, he is remarried, has two young children, and by all appearances was enjoying his post-Senate life playing District Attorney Arthur Branch on TV's "Law & Order."

When Thompson does finally make his debut as a candidate, the No. 1 question will be: Are his message and persona compelling enough to change the dynamic of the race? Van Hilleary, a former member of Congress from Tennessee who has been raising money for Thompson, sees a Reaganesque ability to communicate and connect with people that will propel him.

"I think it's unfair in many ways to compare anyone else with Ronald Reagan, because he's an icon," says Mr. Hilleary. "But [Thompson] does have an ability to communicate, and in that sense, it's similar to Ronald Reagan."

Republicans have long been yearning for the next Reagan – a sunny conservative whose platform was small government, fiscal restraint, and family values – and had found the existing field wanting. While Mr. Giuliani plays well with his 9/11 tough-guy image and Mr. Romney has won over voters (particularly in the early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Michigan) with his executive and business experience, both have been found lacking on social issues.

Rep. Zach Wamp (R) of Tennessee might be Thompson's biggest cheerleader. In an interview, he describes running into former Tennessee Sen. Howard Baker – one of Thompson's original Washington patrons – right after former Senator Frist announced he would not run for president, and hatching the idea of a draft-Thompson effort.

"I said, 'He's a natural – call it gravitas,'" says Mr. Wamp. Senator Baker suggested that Wamp contact Thompson, and when he did, Thompson was caught off guard, described his happy life, and thanked him for the compliment, says Wamp. But the seed was planted and, within months, Thompson was commanding an audience of enthusiastic members of Congress urging him to jump in.

On Thursday, Thompson will do just that. If the former senator can hit the ground running, with a crisp message and positive press reviews, all the talk about having waited too long will dissipate.

But some facts related to timing are immutable. If Thompson had jumped in soon after he first floated the idea on a Sunday talk show in March, he could have turned the Romney campaign into "political roadkill," writes nonpartisan political observer Stu Rothenberg. Instead, by waiting until September, Thompson allowed Romney to mount a highly organized campaign in the early nominating states with major TV advertising, win the Iowa straw poll, and start the autumn push toward the primaries as a top-tier candidate.

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