Great global shift to service jobs
Move over agriculture, according to the International Labor Organization, service is where the growth is.
from the September 4, 2007 edition
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Many workers remain "underutilized," it says. For all the challenges posed by the transition, the rise of services appears to coincide with positive trends in the economy or social indicators in most regions of the world. China and India have lifted millions of people out of poverty. Banking and tourism sectors are growing fast in many developing nations. The former Soviet bloc is capitalizing in part on expertise built up during the communist era, such as computer programming.
"They had to do it behind the Iron Curtain for military applications," and now they're deploying those skills for economic advantage, says Gary Kleiman of Kleiman International, a Washington consulting firm that tracks emerging economies. The UN's human development index, based on factors such as life expectancy and education, has been rising in most areas, although Sub-Saharan Africa remains a worrisome exception.
Economists generally say there's no reason the world's various regions can't enjoy simultaneous development. One's gain need not be another's loss.
"It's not a zero-sum game at all," as long as pro-growth policies are pursued, says Mark Weisbrot, a development expert at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.
Straightforward steps can make a big difference, labor experts say. For instance, reducing child labor means that more children can get an education. "You'd be surprised ... how quick one can reap the benefits" of policies that boost labor productivity, says Lawrence Jeff Johnson, author of the new ILO report.
Every country will continue to need a mix of low- and high-skill workers, but global incomes may hinge on skill growth in the service economy. "As these economies strengthen, then we have pillars of strength around the globe," Mr. Johnson says. "This is a positive thing. It shouldn't be viewed as a fearful thing."
But some economists do worry about disruptions. As technology and rising education levels in developing nations turn services
into tradable commodities, workers in Boston may find themselves in competition with lower-cost rivals in Brasilia. And workers
in Brasilia could find themselves competing with even cheaper labor in Bangladesh.
At a congressional hearing this summer, Princeton University economist Alan Blinder warned that America faces the potential offshoring of millions of service jobs. From hair stylists to trial lawyers, providers of "personal services" will be OK, he predicts, but workers are vulnerable in fields where work doesn't need to be done near the customer.
Even unabashed proponents of globalization's virtues talk about the need to help displaced workers adjust. "Trade ... might even double in the next 20 years or so" as a share of the economy, predicts Jagdish Bhagwati of Columbia University in New York. "It's a fantastically good situation for everybody involved. [But you] have to have institutional support to handle the volatility" of jobs.
For now, most workers in Brazil are simply focused on local realities, not global opportunities. Natalia Torres, a university student in São Paulo, says her friends all see their futures in office work, or service industries, or some similar job that doesn't demand manual labor. She opted to study public relations because she likes dealing with people. She's working as an office assistant while attending classes at night.
"Young people today are lazy," she says in Portuguese. "My grandparents came from Europe and worked hard in the fields. I am certainly lazier than them and even [than] my mother…. The only people who work in the fields today are those that don't have the means to get to the big city."
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