Prisoner releases under Raúl Castro raise hope for Cuba

Leader Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother last year after undergoing emergency surgery.

from the August 30, 2007 edition

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Change will come slowly

Raúl Castro is unlikely to initiate any major changes anytime soon, both because such would constitute a rejection of his brother's legacy while Fidel is still alive, and because he does not wield solitary control of the island. Some experts note, for example, that longtime Fidel confidant, reliable hard-liner and former feared interior minister Ramiro Valdez, has been brought back as communications minister – "Hardly a guy you'd turn to if you planned to open things up," says Suchlicki.

But that does not rule out some loosening up and some measures signaling – to Cubans especially – that change is possible within the Cuban system. And that is the signal some experts say Raúl is sending by letting political incarcerations decrease.

"These are significant numbers, but it doesn't represent greater political opening and greater freedom of speech on the island. It's more a reaching out to the youth, to academics, people they feel will play a role in the future, with the first signs of some possible future opening," says Elsa Falkenberger, a Cuba specialist at the Washington Office on Latin America.

Some experts say more meaningful reforms in this "standby" period are likely to take place in the economic sector – the area in which Raúl had promoted changes in the past.

Youths eager for economic reform

"People in Cuba are waiting for change. They want to live better, they want better housing, improvement in food supplies, more small-business ownership, and those were Raúl's ideas in the '90s," says Ms. Aragón, referring to measures allowing private farmers' markets and small in-home businesses like hair salons and restaurants.

"Young people especially want to see some opportunities for their future, and Raúl has seemed to want to respond to that with a more open economic model," says Ms. Falkenberger. "We just have to remember that we can't just look at Raúl; others [in leadership] are going to be involved." Other experts say US action toward Cuba will, as always, continue to play a key role in the island's evolution.

"The Bush administration's nasty noises are part of the reason for things moving slowly," says Mr. Smith, who was a longtime State Department Cuba specialist. "If ever anything positive came out of the US, I believe we could see much more rapid releases" of political prisoners.

Smith says, for example, that Raúl has hinted at a willingness to open a dialogue with the US, "but we didn't exactly reciprocate. If anything, we did the opposite."

Experience suggests Cuba's leadership is likely to wait and see who occupies the White House after Mr. Bush before making any dramatic moves. A hint of one path US policy toward Cuba could take in 2009 comes from Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Christopher Dodd, who earlier this month called for an end to the US ban on travel to Cuba.

Saying a policy of "staying the course" on Cuba leaves the US on the sidelines at a critical moment, Senator Dodd added in a statement. "It is time to engage before it is too late to have a positive influence on the political landscape."

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