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| Supporters of Pakistan's ousted prime minister, Nawaz Sharif celebrated the Supreme Court's decision that would allow him
to return. K.M. Chaudary/AP |
Nawaz Sharif: Pakistan's new leadership contender
Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf sent envoys to London this week to negotiate with two former prime ministers whose possible return may threaten his hold on power.
from the August 29, 2007 edition
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Sharif, who has lived in Saudi Arabia since 1999, appeared on private television channels over the weekend – his once bald head now hidden beneath a wispy mop of new, grafted hair – and triumphantly declared that he will fly back to Pakistan before the holy month of Ramadan begins in September.
"The coming weeks will be crucial," says Rais, referring to the presidential election scheduled to be held between Sept. 15 and Oct. 15. Winning these elections is Musharraf's immediate focus, he says. "The stage is set and all the important players are now at the table; they're now just waiting to see who makes the next move."
Sharif: From 'zero' to 'hero'?
Eight years ago, few could have predicted this. Sharif, in his two terms as prime minister, had earned a reputation as a corrupt and dull leader. By the time the tanks rolled around he had become one of the most unpopular leaders to rule the country. Even the most educated and politically liberal in Pakistan publicly celebrated his fall from power at the hands of the military.
Sharif tested the waters of his exile once before when he sent his brother Shahbaz Sharif – also in exile in Saudi Arabia – back to Pakistan in May 2004. His plane was promptly turned around at Lahore airport as the government maintained that both brothers were disallowed from entering the country until 2009. This time the Sharif brothers will have the letter of the law on their side.
Musharraf may still block Sharif
Still, how the situation will unfold following their arrival is unclear. Despite his overtures toward democracy and compromise with his two potential rivals, Musharraf's government may still try to prevent Sharif's return.
"We don't know for a fact yet what the government policy will be when Nawaz Sharif arrives," says Rizvi. "I don't expect he will have a very happy landing."
The government could still decide to reopen any number of corruption cases against Sharif, Rizvi explains – some of which could land him in jail. It's also possible he will be barred from campaigning in the next election because of the government's criminal allegations.
Analysts say that one of Musharraf's most important patrons, the US government, is also circumspect about Sharif's reintroduction into Pakistani politics.
"Sharif is close to the religious parties," explains Rais. Sharif's government had attempted to introduce Sharia, Islamic law in Pakistan months before being overthrown, and individuals in his close immediate circle overlap with the Jamat-e-Islami, the largest Islamist party in Pakistan. "His agenda of religious identity politics doesn't sit well with many, especially the Western powers," says Rais.
Reports have surfaced in the Pakistani media that US-friendly Arab leaders have met with Sharif to dissuade him from returning to his home country. But the shockwaves of Sharif's reentry would hit much closer to home for President Musharraf.
"If Nawaz Sharif is allowed to return and campaign," says Rizvi, "there might be serious reverberations, especially within Musharraf's ruling party."
[Editor's note: The original version of the sub-headline misidentified the Pakistani leader who sent a negotiating team to London.]
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