Burma protests: still just a flurry

Rooted in economic concerns, they're unlikely to swell into a pro-democracy movement as in 1988.

from the August 28, 2007 edition

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No immediate reason was given for the fuel hike, the first such increase since 2005. Some exiled Burmese observers have claimed that it could be a step toward privatizing oil and gas distribution, or a deliberate trap set to snare the '88 Generation. Other explanations have turned on the expense of building a new capital from scratch in central Burma, complete with its own airport, telecommunications network, and lavish homes for the ruling generals.

Economic incompetence is also a possible reason. Prior to the tumultuous events of 1988, the previous junta stopped accepting bank notes of certain denominations for numerological reasons, wiping out the savings of millions of Burmese.

Tensions over fuel prices come as the regime puts the final touches on a long-promised constitution that would, if adopted, give the military a commanding voice in a nominally civilian government. In July, a handpicked assembly was told to complete its work within two months, a move that the regime says would pave the way for a referendum on the proposed constitution and the election of a new government.

Some political activists say this push to approve the regime's charter is a factor driving people to voice their anger. "People know that if they don't speak out, this situation will last longer. The military is rushing ahead with the national convention and the constitution. This will make the military in power forever," says Soe Aung, a spokesman for the National Council for the Union of Burma, an opposition group based in Thailand.

The US has long sought to isolate Burma and force its rulers to share power with its political opponents, who won an election in 1990. But firm support from Asian neighbors, including China, a key ally, has enabled the regime to thumb its nose at Western critics.

Undeterred by jail, '88 activists still heady

By organizing fuel protests, the '88 Generation have defied their former jailers, who may have hoped the activists would prove less antagonistic after their time in jail, says Aung Naing Oo, the former activist. By contrast, the NLD has played a largely passive role as it focuses on the political arena and the fate of Ms. Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest since a violent crackdown on the party in 2003. But some NLD protesters have also been detained.

That attack was led by armed militiamen of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a pro-regime group. Members of this group also acted as auxiliary plainclothes police units to suppress the latest fuel protests ,according to news reports. "The regime is getting smarter than in 1988.... they're using the USDA and other government vigilantes to stop demonstrations. This is dangerous in my opinion, as they have no discipline or concern for the people," says Soe Aung.

This threat of violence, and memories of mass bloodshed in 1988, when the regime fired on unarmed protesters, remains palpable. This fear has kept the rallies in the low hundreds and dissuaded sympathetic onlookers from joining. "The cost of confrontation isn't theoretical. It's one that the people know," says the UN official.

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