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Democrats upbeat, but cautious, over '08 prospects

The party's presidential hopefuls lead in fundraising and online traffic. But it's too early to put much stock in such indicators.

from the August 27, 2007 edition

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"People want a message based on hope, and they want to heal the country, and Republicans have divided the daylights out of us for 25 years and ... people are sick of it," he said in a phone interview.

But Jeff Bell, a GOP strategist, says the higher levels of engagement among Democratic voters mean one thing. "They're the out party and they smell blood," he says. "That's the short answer."

Republicans are struggling with an unpopular president and an unpopular war, he says, but a major shift in the war on terror – good or bad – could turn the tides. "It could be something concerning Iran, it could be a major act of terrorism," he says. "Republicans need something to shake up the playing field and the evaluation voters have of what this election is about."

Clinton echoed that view at a New Hampshire campaign stop Thursday. "If certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again," she said.

The most ominous note for the GOP at this early stage is the Democrats' fundraising lead, says David Kimball, a political scientist at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. "That's clearly a bad sign for Republicans," he says. "They're used to always being in the lead in fundraising, even in years when things aren't so great."

Another spoiler for Republicans, he says, is displeasure with the current field of candidates.

"Each of the top GOP candidates has some weakness or flaw that puts off some Republican voters, whereas on the Democratic side either the flaws aren't as obvious or aren't as off-putting to Democratic voters," says Dr. Kimball.

According to the Pew study, 39 percent of Democratic voters polled in July said they had given a "lot of thought" to the candidates, compared with 30 percent of Republican voters who did so.

"Republican voters are not yet as fully focused as Democrats on the presidential field," the study's authors wrote, "perhaps reflecting the general malaise within the GOP since the 2006 congressional election and President Bush's continuing low support."

Too early to gauge voter interest

But early levels of voter interest are not a particularly good harbinger of election results, says Carroll Doherty, associate director of the Pew Research Center. The numbers typically converge nearer Election Day, he says, and they do not account for late-deciding independents, who have been critical in recent elections.

Mr. Dean says he's happy with the Democrats' early momentum, but not complacent. He was the Democratic front-runner for president in early 2004, with more money and higher poll numbers than his rivals for the nomination, before his campaign suddenly imploded. "I don't make much of early polls," he said in the interview. "The Democratic Party is very much united and we want to move forward, but we have a long way to go."

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