A new push for change in the war on terror

In Foreign Policy magazine's Terrorism Index, experts paint a bleak picture of progress and point to diminishing security for the US.

from the August 22, 2007 edition

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These and other conclusions, says Mr. Boyer, indicate that the Iraq experience is informing experts' broader views on the war on terrorism – and prompting calls for new strategies.

"This poll presents an enormously bleak and melancholy picture ... and it's difficult not to read it as a complete repudiation of the entire current conduct on the war on terrorism," says Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. "Where we have been particularly remiss or ineffectual is in fighting the al Qaeda brand as hard as we've fought the al Qaeda terrorists."

Middle East experts like Dr. Gerges say that while the majority of Muslims reject al Qaeda's violence, they have come to believe that much of al Qaeda's rhetoric is correct. "The US is losing the ideological struggle against al Qaeda," says Gerges. "Some of the most intelligent people in that part of the world believe the US is waging a crusade against Islam and Muslims and is trying to subjugate the Arab world and remake it in its image, and that it's doing it brutally."

Many experts say it's critical that the US focus on countering such perceptions. The solution lies in changing US policy in the region and supporting Islamic scholars who can show how al Qaeda is distorting the Koran.

"Once you strip the adversary of their extremist message of religion, there's nothing left but criminality and thuggery," says Frank Cilluffo, director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University. "There's growing recognition this needs to be done, but we haven't marshaled and mobilized those resources as much as we ought to." Some scholars believe a comprehensive strategy should include a massive economic and social investment similar to the Marshall Plan after World War II. They also think it's crucial to develop a strategy of deterrence.

"Deterrence is probably the hardest part of counterterrorism," says John McLaughlin, former acting director of the CIA. "Classical deterrence in the past worked against adversaries who played by certain rules and didn't want to die. Here, you're up against an adversary who plays by no particular rules and is willing to die."

It's equally important to combat the terrorist narrative, he says. Others agree and again point to the findings of the Terrorism Index.

"Part of the results ... is a warning that we must change our strategy, or otherwise we'll be ... fighting this struggle ad infinitum," says Hoffman.

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