Iowa straw vote shows GOP race still wide open

Former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won with 31.5 percent of the vote, but in a low-turnout contest the national frontrunners skipped. [Editor's note: The original version of this web sub-headline mischaracterized the nature of the straw poll.]

By Ariel Sabar | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the August 13, 2007 edition

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Washington - If the Iowa straw poll Saturday revealed anything about the race for the Republican presidential nomination, it is that the race, even in Iowa, is still open.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney sailed to a widely expected victory after millions of dollars and months of campaigning in the state. But in a contest the national frontrunners sat out, his showing – 31.5 percent of the 14,302 ballots cast – fell somewhere short of a mandate, analysts said.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee placed second, with a surprising 18.1 percent, despite a shoestring effort to turn out supporters. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas was a close third, with 15.3 percent. Their relatively strong finishes are likely to renew questions about the depth of Mr. Romney's appeal to social conservatives, key to victory in the early-primary states.

"I don't think 31 percent is convincing when you don't have at least [former New York Mayor Rudolph] Giuliani or [actor] Fred Thompson competing," David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist and pollster, said of the Romney vote. "The reality is the race is still fairly wide open here in Iowa."

The straw poll, though not binding, is the first big test of GOP strength in the 2008 race. In past elections it has served to anoint front-runners and strip the field of the weakest candidates. But the decision by Mr. Giuliani, Sen. John McCain, and the still-undeclared Mr. Thompson to skip it – despite plans to compete in the Iowa caucuses – cast doubt on its relevance this year.

The poll's swiftest impact may be on the bottom-rung candidates. Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson has said that without a first- or second-place finish, he would quit the race. He placed sixth Saturday, behind Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

The straw poll, a day-long spectacle of banners, bands, and barbecue on the grounds of Iowa State University in Ames, is primarily a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, which hoped to raise $1 million this year.

The campaigns bus in thousands of supporters, generally pay their $35-a-head admission fee, and ply them with free food, music, and time with the candidates. More than anything, the poll is a measure of organizational might five months ahead of the Iowa caucuses, the first binding contest of the 2008 race.

The only real suspense Saturday was over the size of Romney's lead. Romney had led the GOP field in most Iowa polls. But he was counting on an overwhelming win Saturday to boost his national standing. In most national polls, he has been mired in fourth behind Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson.

Romney called the results Saturday night "an important victory" and told supporters in Ames that "the people of this great state have sent a message to the rest of the country."

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