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| Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (l.), a Republican presidential contender, recently campaigned at the Ames Public Library
in Ames, Iowa. Amy Vinchattle/Ames Tribune/AP |
Iowa GOP straw poll: what to watch
Eyes will be on the showing for Romney, the only top-tier candidate in Saturday's contest, analysts say.
from the August 10, 2007 edition
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South Carolina holds the second primary, and among Republicans, Christian conservatives play a large role. Among the Republicans competing in Ames, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas are making the strongest pitch for that constituency, but have yet to gain much traction in polls or in fundraising. Still, reservations about Romney's Mormon faith and recent conversion to his antiabortion stand have left religious conservatives still unsettled on an obvious alternative.
If another candidate comes in a close second to Romney in Ames, that could be the big story on Saturday, says Mr. Goldford.
Another wild card on the religious right is Senator Thompson. Next Friday, he will meet with about 15 key social conservative Iowans in Des Moines. "There's potential for him, because no one's begun to coalesce around any one candidate," says Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Christian Alliance. "I think there's some opportunity; it just depends on what he has to say."
Possible dropouts
Point three, on potential dropouts: One candidate to watch on that score is former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson. His candidacy has not caught on so far, and he may be a casualty of Ames. Mr. Huckabee and Senator Brownback, too, may get caught short in Ames, but with only one top-tier face in the crowd, some lower-tier faces might get a second wind – read, a boost in donations – by coming in second, third, or even fourth in Ames.
Another name to watch is Tom Tancredo, a congressman from Colorado, who has built his campaign around his tough stand against illegal immigration. If he can't gain traction in a field largely devoid of the big players, he may have to reconsider. Rep. Duncan Hunter of California could be another casualty.
Then there's Ron Paul, a congressman from Texas, and the only libertarian in the field. He has gained stature – and funds – from his maverick position in the party, opposing the Iraq war and anything that smacks of "big government."
"He's a real wild card," says Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Iowa in Iowa City. "He hasn't spent much time here, but he's now on the air [with advertising]. He has a very committed group of supporters, though nobody knows how many.… He could be a surprise."
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