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| Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (l.), a Republican presidential contender, recently campaigned at the Ames Public Library
in Ames, Iowa. Amy Vinchattle/Ames Tribune/AP |
Iowa GOP straw poll: what to watch
Eyes will be on the showing for Romney, the only top-tier candidate in Saturday's contest, analysts say.
By Linda Feldmann | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitorfrom the August 10, 2007 edition
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Washington - This weekend's Iowa GOP straw poll was supposed to provide the first clue as to who might go the distance and win the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. That won't happen. Among the top-tier candidates, only former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is competing.
But the straw poll, a nonbinding vote taking place Saturday among attendees at a state party fundraiser in Ames, Iowa, will nevertheless advance the story of the long and laborious climb to the Republican nomination. Here are the three points to watch for, analysts say: How does Governor Romney do? Does anyone emerge as the clear alternative to Romney among religious conservatives? And does the field shrink?
Point one, on Romney: His campaign has poured major resources into the event, organizing rides from all over the state, paying admission fees for attendees, and serving food at the event. When other top candidates announced they would not participate, the Romney campaign pulled back on its effort (though officials will not reveal specifics) and attempted to lower expectations, but is still banking on a big win.
"If he doesn't win big, that will be a surprise," says independent pollster Dick Bennett, who polls frequently in Iowa. "If he does win big, people will say, 'Yes, he's real.' But in a crowded field, I don't know what big is."
Romney has been leading in Iowa polls for months, typically scoring in the high 20s. If he scores less than that in the straw poll, that could be a sign of trouble; Iowa will hold the first nominating contest in the country – the precinct caucuses – perhaps as early as this December. But polling of likely caucusgoers is not necessarily a good gauge of how the straw poll might go, since the other top-tier candidates are not competing in Ames.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Sen. John McCain of Arizona are still campaigning in Iowa and say they have not lowered their commitment to winning in the caucuses. They "dropped out" of Ames months ago, when it looked as if they could not match Romney organizationally. Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee also polls reasonably well in Iowa, but is not expected to announce his campaign in September and is in no shape to compete with Romney in Ames.
Romney alternative?
Point two, on the also-rans: Specifically, the question is "who might emerge as an alternative to Romney among conservative evangelical Christian Republicans," says Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. "They are major players here, more so than in New Hampshire [home of the nation's first primary]. If Romney does reasonably well among them here, he might try to leverage that among Evangelicals in South Carolina."
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