Is Iran meddling in Afghanistan?

It is one reason that Karzai would be loath to enter a war of words with Iran, experts say. He cannot afford to alienate what has been a close and peaceful ally. But some government officials are voicing concerns about what they call Iran's cautious yet deliberate efforts to gain influence in Afghanistan recently.

After years of goodwill, the criticism suggests a gradual shift in the relations of the two countries. There is no irrefutable evidence of wrongdoing, officials say, but rather a mounting of clues.

In recent weeks, the commander of the Afghan Border Police for the region bordering Iran, Col. Rahmatullah Safi, has been outspoken about Iran. In addition to the seizure of Iranian-made weapons in his territory, he alleges that Iran is harboring a hit squad led by former mujahideen commander Yahya Khortarak, which targets local leaders. Other security officials suggest that there is an Iranian terrorist training camp near the Afghan border.

It is doubtful that Iran would want to topple the Karzai regime, analysts say. Under the inclusive Western-backed government, Shiites have unprecedented power, despite the fact that they make up only 12 percent of the population. As a center of Shiite power, Iran would not wish to threaten such a delicate sectarian balance.

But with Europe and the United States talking tough about Iran's nuclear program, Afghanistan represents an opportunity for Iran to shift circumstances in its favor. "They're always trying to gain more leverage in these talks," says Tarzi.

Afghanistan struggles with refugees

The same is true with regard to Afghanistan itself. Earlier this year, Iran began deporting thousands of Afghan refugees. Though Iran was perfectly at liberty to do so, the abruptness of the decision, combined with the sheer number of deportees and the fact that many of them had legal documents to remain in Iran, pointed to a motive beyond expedience or impatience.

Water-rights issues of crucial importance to Iran are now in the balance, as well as Afghanistan's willingness to support the US and Europe in their anti-Iran campaign. The sudden arrival of thousands of jobless Afghans into a country ill-prepared to absorb them was designed to remind Kabul of Iran's ability to make life difficult for Afghanistan, critics say.

Here, along Afghanistan's border with Iran, beneath a massive admonitory portrait of Ayatollah Khomeini, the buses still often come more than once an hour.

They bring Afghans like Mir Mohammed Safari, a teenager who says he lived in Iran legally for seven years before being rounded up from his workplace without notice, taken here, and then shunted unceremoniously across the border.

He is one of thousands of Afghan workers who fled to Iran, either for safety or employment, who are now being thrown out.

For his new life in Afghanistan, he has only what he could fit into a plastic bag. "From everything, I brought this," he says with a wry smile.

Fellow refugee Javed Sharifi squints in the sunlight, as the wind whips violently over this arid border checkpoint.

Mr. Sharifi has only 500 Afghanis – $10 – to try to get to his home on the opposite side of Afghanistan, some 400 miles away. Says Sharifi: "I have no idea how I am going to get to Takhar."

• Mr. Sappenfield is the New Delhi correspondent for the Monitor and USA Today.

Page: 1 | 2