To exit Iraq, how is as important as when

Any troop withdrawal could take up to 18 months and would need careful planning, military experts say.

from the August 6, 2007 edition

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US forces this time are likely to have to fight their way out as they hand the country over to the Iraqi government, a scenario that is reminiscent more of the Vietnam War than Gulf War I.

"It's possible, even likely, that Iran among others would try to humiliate us on the way out, so you'd have to plan for a fighting withdrawal," says Barry McCaffrey, a retired four-star general and adviser to the Defense Department. If the Bush administration were to opt to leave most of the military's equipment and facilities in Iraq, forces could be removed in a little more than three months, he says. But it's more advisable for US forces to exit gradually over more than a year when the time comes, says Mr. McCaffrey, who does not support an American withdrawal now.

Fast or slow, a departure poses challenges for planners. One option is to remove most forces the way they entered, through Kuwait, which minimizes the number of forces needed for guard duty for a contested departure. But amassing troops in one area would leave US forces particularly vulnerable, say former commanders. It also creates logjams.

One veteran of the first Gulf War, a captain at the time, remembers enduring six weeks in Saudi Arabia waiting to go home. They ran low on food. There was nothing to do. They had to move to different camps, only to wait longer.

"Everybody knew this was going to take a little bit of time to get everybody home because there were so many of us," says the veteran, who now works on Capitol Hill and requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of his job. "But somewhere along the line, it became unglued."

Others say it would be more advisable to use Turkey and Jordan, as well as Kuwait, as exit points. Although that would require more forces for guard duty, it would allow a more orderly and "coherent" way out, some say.

A number of US forces will probably have to stay in Iraq, but how many will depend on the security situation there and how much equipment will be left behind.

"We will not draw down from 160,000 to zero. We will draw down from 160,000 to a force that would be able to continue the development of the Iraqi security forces and ... that would provide for [US] security," says retired Army Major Gen. Paul Eaton, whose last job was training the new Iraqi Army. He continues to call for withdrawal to begin soon, as a way to "exert some discipline" on what he says is the "underperforming" Iraqi government.

Ultimately, the American departure from Iraq will be difficult, complex, and painstaking, says the former Gulf War veteran now working in Congress.

"It's so much more than just a political statement of 'we're leaving,' " he says.

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