To exit Iraq, how is as important as when

Any troop withdrawal could take up to 18 months and would need careful planning, military experts say.

By Gordon Lubold | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

from the August 6, 2007 edition

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WASHINGTON - Some in Congress and an increasing number of Americans want the Bush administration to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq, but even if the decision came tomorrow to remove all 160,000 troops now there, it could take as long as 18 months to do it, say former military officials who've managed troop exits before.

Sooner or later, American forces will leave Iraq. But that political decision cannot be made in isolation, but must take into account the logistics of departure, which will be neither simple nor speedy, say former military officers.

Unlike other withdrawals from, say, Saudi Arabia after the first Gulf War, insurgents, terrorists, and other bad actors are expected to contest US forces as they leave.

"There is no way they're going to pull out of that theater as fast as everyone thinks," says retired Army Lt. Gen. William "Gus" Pagonis, who oversaw the withdrawal of nearly half a million US troops and hundreds of thousands of pieces of equipment from Saudi Arabia in 1991 over a seven-month period.

Mr. Pagonis says the US should start withdrawing its forces soon – but without a published timetable – and expects it will take as long as 18 months to get the bulk of them out.

Withdrawal means different things to different people. Depending on how the war goes over the next few months, the Bush administration could push for more time and then begin a gradual withdrawal next year. Democrats in Congress, so far unable to halt implementation of the administration's "surge" strategy in Iraq, may yet be able to force a faster removal of troops.

Most agree that a "residual force" of untold size is likely to remain in Iraq for some time.

Whether a withdrawal is full or partial, it is clearly on the collective mind of Congress. On Thursday, Senate Armed Services Committee members received a private briefing from Pentagon officials about the Defense Department's withdrawal plan, after a public tit-for-tat between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) of New York and the Pentagon on the matter.

Senator Clinton, a presidential candidate who is leading in polls among Democrats, would not comment on what she learned from the briefing. "We did not have a smart plan to go in," she said, characterizing the deployment as a "combination of arrogance and incompetence." "But we will do everything in our power to be sure we have a smart plan to get out."

A smart plan will take time to execute, warn former military officials. When hostilities ended after the first Gulf War, more than 5,000 troops were flown out each day, and equipment was scrubbed clean to comply with US agricultural regulations. About 400 ship loads were needed to get all the equipment out.

The US has only about one-third as much equipment and personnel in the region now as it did in 1990, Pagonis says. Still, he adds, this departure will be far more complicated.

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