For online users, a looming shortage of IP addresses

The numerical sequences, which allow machines to communicate with one another, could run out in the next few years.

from the August 3, 2007 edition

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Few companies have followed suit. Less than 1 percent of Internet traffic uses IPv6. The reason: Consumers aren't clamoring for it, so there is no immediate, compelling business reason to upgrade.

"From the user's point of view, they wouldn't know if it was IPv6 or V8 juice. They just want their MTV," says Mr. Bush.

There's some disagreement about whether fewer available addresses will pose real problems. For years, people have predicted that IP addresses were close to running out, says Douglas Comer, an early developer of the Internet and a professor at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Ind. Various workarounds staved off shortages.

"There are lots of alternatives to just giving everybody their own IP address for every device, and those alternatives seem to be working pretty well," says Dr. Comer.

ISPs have found ways to use fewer IP addresses to service entry-level Web users – those who aren't interested in setting up their own website or sharing files. As these users desire more functionality, such as the ability to write a blog, services like Flickr or website hosts can meet their needs while still economizing on IPv4 space. The prevalence of service fees, he says, may eventually stimulate user demand for IPv6.

Conrad argues against this laissez faire approach because it curbs the democratic promise of the Internet in favor of a "retrograde" broadcast model with only a few producers and many consumers. He also worries that procrastination will force a rushed transition at the last moment, something that could mean more Internet congestion and greater cost to companies.

There's also concern that a shortage of addresses could stifle new technologies such as Web-enabled home appliances and cellphones.

Governmental involvement

Some experts are urging governments to step in as Japan did to provide monetary incentives, rather than waiting years for businesses to see a short-term rationale for upgrading to IPv6. Other governments, and the US Department of Defense, are now mandating contractors to upgrade.

While still a matter of considerable debate, one of the most widely cited projections on when the last new IP addresses will be allocated comes from Geoff Huston, chief scientist with the Asia Pacific Network Information Centre. Currently, the IANA gives out IP addresses on the basis of demonstrated need. Those handouts will start running out in parts of the world in 2011, according to projections last month by Mr. Huston [Editor's note: The original version misstated who Mr. Huston's current employer is.]

However, Huston says that doesn't factor in the IANA growing more stingy, nor does it factor in hoarding by those seeing the shortage of remaining addresses. Both those scenarios are likely, particularly a run on the bank, says Bill Woodcock, research director of the Packet Clearing House, an institute in San Francisco dealing with Internet development.

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