Could Japan's Abe step down?

Despite ruling party defeat, Japan's premier may resist pressure to leave office.

from the July 30, 2007 edition

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"Mr. [Ichiro] Ozawa could attempt to split the ruling coalition," says Mr. Kawakami, referring to the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). "If that happens, that could inevitably lead to increasing government instability."

The LDP's big loss could also make Abe lose the trust of the US and Asian neighbors, some experts say.

Soon after taking office, Abe visited China and South Korea to mend relations, which had been battered by his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi's repeated visits to Yasukuni Shrine, a controversial war memorial that honors, among others, Japanese soldiers convicted of war crimes.

"Asian countries see the visit as nothing more than a gesture as Abe has advocated the pro-American diplomacy since then, and failed to reexamine Japan's support for the US-led Iraq War," says Akikazu Hashimoto, a visiting political science professor at J.F. Oberlin University in Tokyo. "Japan has made no progress in developing its relations with Asian countries under Mr. Koizumi and Abe," he says.

Abe's denial of the Japanese Imperial Army's involvement in wartime sexually slavery caused an international outcry and further sharpened neighboring countries' mistrust of the Japanese leader, critics say. The premier claimed in March that there was no evidence that the military had forced women in occupied Asia to serve as "comfort women" – a euphemism for the estimated 200,000 women who worked in military sponsored brothels during World War II.

"Asian countries don't trust Abe, who is in favor of rewriting the nation's history and denies the military's involvement in the sexual slavery," says Minoru Morita, a Tokyo-based political analyst.

Abe's denial was also fiercely criticized in the US. "While Mr. Bush may still support Abe, this election defeat could let members of Congress take a harsher view of Abe," says Mr. Hashimoto, who is also a senior research associate at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies. "They [members of Congress] would say, 'We want a decent Japanese leader.’ ”

If Abe steps down and the DPJ could take power, Japan could improve its relations with the US and Asian countries, says Mr. Morita.

"Japan should reflect on its conduct during World War II," says Morita, reiterating that "the lesson Japan learned from its defeat in World War II is to build long-term friendly relations with the US, China and neighboring countries." [Editor’s Note: The original version did not close the quote from Akikazu Hashimoto and attribute the following sentence to Minoru Morita.]

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