Could Japan's Abe step down?

Despite ruling party defeat, Japan's premier may resist pressure to leave office.

By Takehiko Kambayashi | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

from the July 30, 2007 edition

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TOKYO - Japanese voters expressed their discontent over Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's leadership as Mr. Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday's upper house elections. The major setback could pressure Abe to step down, pollsters say.

Despite facing a loss of his parliamentary majority, Abe told Japan's Public Television network, NHK, that he is determined to continue his efforts to revise Japan's pacifist Constitution and reform its educational system to reflect more patriotic views of Japanese history.

"The nation-building has just started," Abe told a television reporter. "I would like to deliver on my duty to proceed with reform."

Meanwhile, LDP Secretary-General Hidenao Nakagawa, told reporters on Sunday evening that he intends to resign. While many senior executives in the LDP say they want Abe to continue with his reform agenda, Japanese media reported on rumors that some party members would like Abe to resign.

Analysts attribute the electoral rout to Abe's weak leadership, the government's mishandling of millions of pension records, and a string of scandals and gaffes by his ministers. Two ministers resigned and one hanged himself in late May after opposition members of parliament accused him of bid-rigging and misusing public funds.

In the early stages of the campaign, the media focused on whether the ruling coalition would be able to keep its majority in the upper house. The focus is now on whether Abe will be able to keep his job as prime minister.

"The public is saying, 'It is Abe who appointed these ministers, isn't it?' " says Kazuhisa Kawakami, a political science professor at Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo. "If Abe keeps his job, he should refresh the government lineup to regain public trust."

Abe, the youngest postwar premier and the first to be born after World War II, succeeded popular Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in September with a cabinet approval rating of 70 percent and overwhelming support from his party. After only 10 months in office, however, the Abe cabinet's approval rating plunged to 30 percent.

"The major defeat means that the coalition of the LDP and the New Komeito will have difficulty in winning back a majority in the upper house in the next 12 years," says Mr. Kawakami.

The LDP loss could prompt vigorous moves toward political realignment, analysts say.

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