Iraq aside, economy tops voter concerns

Democratic presidential hopefuls may try to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the economy.

from the July 26, 2007 edition

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As a result, the policy environment in Washington has already shifted. This week, in a nod to workers who feel left behind, the national minimum wage jumped to $5.85 an hour, after being at $5.15 for a decade.

Economic worries may be deepening, even though the economy is approaching seven years of growth since the last recession. A key reason: Rising energy costs have devoured pay raises for many households.

"Family incomes are down in recent years" when adjusted for inflation, says Jason Furman, an economist who directs the Hamilton Project, an effort by the Brookings Institution based in Washington, D.C. to develop broad-based domestic policies. This predicament for working-age households, as tracked by the Census Bureau, translates into a mandate for change, he says.

"No one wants more of the same," Mr. Furman says. "[Candidates] are really going to need to sketch out a new direction for economic policy."

So far, the candidate who has gone furthest to define himself on the economy, arguably, is John Edwards. He has detailed plans for an ambitious expansion of healthcare coverage for the uninsured, highlighted the growing gap between the fortunes of the wealthy and the middle class, and just toured several states to highlight the persistence of poverty.

He still lags behind the leading Democratic contenders, Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois. But analysts say that Edwards has been able to deploy a populist economic message to his advantage.

Historically, however, a populism carries pitfalls. "[Candidates] have a two-part challenge," Furman says. "They need to describe the challenges that people have today, and then they have to be optimistic" about the nation's ability to meet them…. That's the magic combination that you're looking for."

Indeed, candidates on both sides will have to navigate somewhat conflicted views of the electorate.

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