 |
| Shinzo Abe: Japan's Prime Minister waves to a crowd of onlookers during a visit to the Gunma Prefecture, which was damaged by heavy rain.
Japan's ruling camp could lose a July 29 upper house election. Kyodo/Reuters |
Japan's Abe faces uphill battle in parliamentary vote
Japan's ruling party is likely to see big losses in the Upper House elections on Sunday.
from the July 25, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 2
Page 1 | 2
Analysts also point out that another major problem for Abe was his failure to attract nonaffiliated voters. That is in stark contrast to his predecessor, the telegenic Mr. Koizumi, who succeeded in winning the broad support of nonaffiliated voters.
But it is the string of scandals and verbal gaffes involving his appointees and ministers that experts say has been the most taxing. In January, Health, Labor and Welfare Minister Hakuo Yanagisawa referred to women of child-bearing age as "birth machines" during his speech on Japan's low birthrate.
Even Abe's initial anointment as Koizumi's successor was seen by many as based largely on "chummy" old boy's club politicking.
In the Upper House elections, 377 candidates are vying for 121 seats, half of the chamber's 242 seats. The ruling coalition probably needs 64 seats to keep its majority. But if the LDP were to suffer a crushing defeat – by winning, for example, fewer than 40 seats – Abe may still step down. In that case, Foreign Minister Taro Aso, pollsters say, could be a strong successor.
Under Koizumi, the LDP gained an overwhelming majority in the more influential Lower House in the 2005 elections. This time, the pendulum is likely to swing in the DPJ's favor. Sunday's elections may also reveal Japan's emerging two-party system.
The DPJ has focused more on voters' concerns about their economic welfare, especially since their ignominious defeat in the 2005 election, analysts say. Pension problems and the widening wealth disparity are among the election's larger issues.
For its part, the LDP, beginning under Koizumi, embarked on a series of economic reforms focused on deregulation and the controversial privatization of Japan's large postal savings system.
"Many Japanese think the LDP gained too many seats in the 2005 election, and they are saying that the LDP and the New Komeito have become so arrogant," says Minoru Morita, a Tokyo-based analyst, referring to the LDP's coalition partner. "Many people think the country is governed by those who cannot understand the public."
1 | Page 2
RSS feed
