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GOP field appears to narrow

Some analysts are saying the race could come down to a two-man contest between former senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

from the July 24, 2007 edition

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The wild card is whether Thompson will live up to his advance hype. But going in, he enjoys enormous goodwill from the core of the Republican Party. Religious conservatives have shrugged at evidence that Thompson lobbied on behalf of an abortion-rights group in the early 1990s.

People will say, "Well, he's a lawyer, he's got to represent his clients," says Richard Land, a top official of the Southern Baptist Convention. "His statements on life have been as strong as they possibly can be."

Thompson could also have been hurt among religious conservatives for his initial support for campaign finance reform. Senator McCain earns conservative enmity for being the measure's chief Republican sponsor, but Thompson has since called the reform a mistake, and so conservatives give him a pass there as well.

"He's the only one that everyone in the party can live with," says John Geer, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville. "Romney will get some people upset; Giuliani will get some people upset. Thompson doesn't face that. That's his big asset."

In delaying the formal announcement, originally expected earlier this month, Thompson and his team are "playing it safe and just making sure they're ready," says Mr. Geer. The GOP field's underperformance in fundraising, as compared with the Democratic field, shows that Republicans are sitting on their wallets and waiting to be inspired by a candidate. Thompson is expected to hold a major fundraiser in Washington later this month, an event that will demonstrate just how strong he can be in the crucial "money primary."

The last presidential candidate to enter a race late and in response to a draft movement was Gen. Wesley Clark (D) of Arkansas, in 2004. In his case, the advance hype proved greater than the reality of his campaigning skill. But General Clark had never run for office before. Thompson has proven skill at politics, with his ambling, Southern manner and actor's touch.

The one hole in Thompson's résumé is his lack of demonstrated executive ability. But, says Mr. Land, "if he is able to put together a campaign that can successfully compete, then he will fill in that hole."

One advantage to holding off on his announcement may be that it squeezes Newt Gingrich out of the GOP race. The former House speaker has long talked about making a decision on whether to run in late September. If Thompson announces in early September, there may still be enough buzz that there's no room for Mr. Gingrich, suggests Geer.

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