America's Pakistan dilemma
The US struggles to increase pressure on terrorists and avert Musharraf's downfall.
from the July 23, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
The US should take advantage of an existing trilateral initiative among NATO countries, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to address the threat of terrorism from Pakistani territory, says Mr. Inderfurth, now specializing in international relations at George Washington University.
More broadly, however, the US must work – fast – to pressure Musharraf into opening up Pakistan's political system and tapping into its shallow but existing democratic roots, experts say. "Musharraf simply won't be able to mount an effective campaign against the extremists without broad civilian support," says Cohen.
And for that, he adds, the military leader will have to move to a system of power- sharing that encompasses Pakistan's political parties.
Recent speculation suggested former prime minister Benazir Bhutto might join Musharraf in a coalition government focused on tackling extremism. But any moves toward a power-sharing deal may have been halted by Friday's surprise ruling by Pakistan's Supreme Court, which reinstated the chief justice Musharraf had suspended in March.
The ruling, which Musharraf announced he would respect, could embolden the judiciary to challenge Musharraf's plans to secure a new presidential mandate from the outgoing parliament.
Inderfurth says Musharraf's commitment to holding elections is positive, but the quest to remain president and military chief is "bad news." He says, however, that the US must keep in mind that the 60-year-old nation "is in the fight of its life" against Islamist extremism.
Musharraf and the country's moderate political forces must find a way to come together, he says, "because if they don't the problems identified in the National Intelligence Estimate will pale in comparison to what could follow." The international community "should very much want Musharraf to prevail in this," he adds.
Others say Musharraf may be part of the preferred avenue for Pakistan, but only if that includes a clipping of the general's power and a broadening of the political power base. The problem for the US, Riedel says, will be finding a balance between encouraging democratic forces and abetting Musharraf's demise.
"Having backed Musharraf to the hilt for six years, the slightest hint of a turn by the US could set off his collapse," Riedel says.
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