Rising violence tests Musharraf

Pakistan's president may strengthen his grip by exploiting recent attacks in Islamabad and the tribal areas, but the opposition wants elections.

from the July 19, 2007 edition

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A declaration of emergency would suspend the Constitution and delay the general elections scheduled for the fall. While the date of the election has not yet been set, Musharraf may still postpone the vote if the wave of violence in the northwest of the country continues to swell, or if the political opposition decides to resign en masse from the parliament.

"An emergency would be very difficult to sustain," says Rais, because it would push legislative elections back beyond September when the President is up for reelection. "This will be unacceptable to the opposition political parties," he says.

Opposition leaders say that it would be against the spirit of democracy were Musharraf to extend his tenure for another term from the same assembly that has always bent to his wishes.

Alternative to a state of emergency

The alternative, some analysts say, has not been explored. Opposition leaders have proposed holding an all-parties' conference to forge a grand political strategy before the scheduled election. But Musharraf is believed to be far too insecure right now – concerned with maintaining his dual role as chief of the Army and president – to sit down at a table with all his opposition.

"Everyone needs to have a stake in maintaining stability, otherwise we can not face this challenge," says Rais.

Lawyers and opposition leaders, who were leading rallies across the country Wednesday, have switched to high gear, demanding that the president, who they say has lost his grip on law and order in the country, should resign.

Yet other experts say that while holding free and fair elections may still be unable to quell the violence that is spreading from the mountains in the northwest to the plains, they would give all political elements at the top an opportunity to engage the government.

Years of military rule since Musharraf seized power in 1999 have left pervasive corruption throughout Pakistan's government.

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