Why US sees Al Qaeda as a growing threat

With a haven in Pakistan, the terror group is boosting funding and training, US agencies say.

from the July 17, 2007 edition

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Last week the Senate overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the fiscal 2008 defense authorization bill that would require quarterly classified reports on the administration's efforts to bring to justice Mr. bin Laden and his top commanders.

"We still don't have them, and these are the people who are plotting to attack us now," said one of the amendment's sponsors, Budget Committee chairman Sen. Kent Conrad (D) of North Dakota.

Other experts say that it is entirely credible that Al Qaeda's leadership has become more active. The war in Iraq has been an effective recruiting tool, bringing in new flows of cash and recruits. At the same time, the Pakistani government has been unwilling or unable to threaten Al Qaeda's new HQ in the treacherous mountains of North and South Waziristan, and other wild border areas.

"Any sensible policymaker is going to err on the side of warning the American public, rather than trying to shield them," says Willam Martel, a Tufts University security expert and author of the new book "Victory in War: Foundations of Modern Military Policy."

The bottom line of the new National Intelligence Estimate is unsurprising: the US faces a persistent and evolving terrorist threat, and Islamic terrorist groups, especially Al Qaeda, remain the main danger to the US homeland.

"The organization is resilient and continues to plot attacks against high-profile targets with the objective of inflicting mass casualties," said Thomas Fingar, deputy director of National Intelligence for Analysis, at last week's House hearing.

The group maintains active lines of communications with affiliate groups in the Middle East and Europe, said Mr. Fingar. It has been successful both in rebuilding its central capabilities, and in "franchising" its name to satellite groups that want to build themselves up via association.

The job of third-ranking Al Qaeda leader is a dangerous one. "We regularly get to the number three person," said Fingar.

Pakistan's central government has virtually no authority in the area where Al Qaeda appears to have regrouped. Instead, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has struck peace deals with tribal leaders, ceding to them security control. These deals have "not been helpful," said Fingar last week.

The US does have the military power to take unilateral action in the area, intelligence officials assured House Armed Services panel members last week.

It has chosen not to do so, however, because of the uproar that might result in the rest of Pakistan. President Musharraf faces a deeply entrenched Islamist opposition, US officials said. "There is some risk of turning a problem in Northwest Pakistan into the problem of all of Pakistan," said Fingar.

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