Bush fights to control Iraq strategy

One factor motivating a Senate rebellion is the failure of the Iraqi government to make tangible progress on the "benchmarks" set by Congress that were to promote Iraqi national reconciliation. With an improved security situation, the Iraqi government was supposed to have the "breathing room" it needed to pass key legislation on power-sharing among the country's sectarian populations, and to tackle sectarian militias.

Still, supporters of the troop-buildup strategy say it is showing promising results, even if the Iraqi government has failed to move on the benchmarks set by Congress. "I always thought those were unreasonable benchmarks," said Frederick Kagan, one of the strategy's architects, at a Washington forum this week.

But the strategy is showing results in other ways, says Mr. Kagan, a military historian at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. Political progress has been "significant" in the Sunni Arab community, he says, where tribal leaders have cut ties to Al Qaeda-associated groups and agreed to join the US in rooting them out of their communities. Local governments are taking advantage of improved security and taking action even if the national government isn't, he adds.

"Improvements in security and prospects for political progress: I still think that's what [General Petraeus] will come back with" in September, Kagan says. What all this means is that the 'surge' "may yet fail … but it hasn't yet."

But even these points of progress are being criticized by others. Some security experts are cautioning, for example, that the rallying of Sunni Arab tribes to the US side in the battle with Islamic extremists may constitute a short-term gain but could undermine other US goals in Iraq. The tribes are not pledging support for a strong national government, for one.

Skeptics also counter the "improved security" argument by pointing out that sectarian violence has ratcheted up in other parts of the country as US troops have focused on Baghdad and the Sunni-dominant Anbar Province. This suggests that in order for the troop buildup to really work, it would require several times more the additional troops.

Some opponents of congressional efforts to change US Iraq policy say the proposed amendments would be tantamount to the legislative branch wresting control of foreign policy from the executive branch. Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, just back from Iraq, used those grounds to criticize a defense-funding amendment proposed by Sen. Jim Webb (D) of Virginia that would give soldiers deployed to Iraq as much time back home as their deployment before they could be redeployed.

But the argument that appears to be swaying rebellious Senate Republicans is the one that finds the Iraqis are not holding up their side of a bargain struck in January. With US troops dying at an accelerated rate and the US spending nearly $10 billion a month, more of them are finding it reasonable to expect progress.

"Simply put, our troops have been doing a great job, but the Iraqi government has not," Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) of North Carolina, said Tuesday. "It is my firm hope and belief that we can start bringing our troops home in 2008."

The House is also expected to vote this week on a measure to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 120 days.

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