Wastefulness of the early presidential campaign

US voters haven't decided yet, so the media's focus on polling data is both pointless and distorting.

from the July 10, 2007 edition

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Iowa's Republican caucusgoers are no different. In 1996, nearly a quarter chose their candidate on caucus night or in the preceding two days; fully 42 percent decided in the last 10 days. And in New Hampshire, only 12 percent of Republicans decided in 2000 whom they would support in the primary before Jan. 1 of election year.

What a sobering thought. Millions raised, then spent, thousands of staffers, all the early spin, all the early endorsements, and all the early everything else consists mainly of campaigns trying to create metrics by which the media can measure their progress. Yet the reality is that there's not much value in the measurements at this stage.

Meanwhile, the media ignore the un-certainty principle – that the measurements themselves, printed in bold type on Page 1, create their own distorted results, inaccurately advantaging some while disadvantaging others. By creating a potentially illusory sense of momentum or of failure, these pseudomeasures affect the extent of media coverage, fundraising, endorsements, and the willingness of volunteers to engage.

The result is a cycle. Early national polling is used to declare winners and losers. Those declarations affect the flow of money and coverage, which is then reported as winners and losers, Part 2, thereby driving the next polls.

In 2003, this cycle nearly buried Kerry.

Let's face it: While money in the bank, a strong organization, a capable staff, and a compelling message will be vital next year when early-primary-state voters start deciding, trying to measure the variables now, for a campaign that for most hasn't even started, can lead to a net loss of knowledge.

• Mike Murphy is a Republican political consultant whose clients have included California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Mark Mellman is a Democratic pollster who has represented Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, Sen. Barbara Boxer of California, and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, among others. ©2007 Los Angeles Times Syndicate.

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