Why Russia is against Kosovo plan

Ahead of Bush-Putin summit, the issue threatens to stymie efforts to repair relations.

from the June 28, 2007 edition

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West say Kosovo a unique case

Western experts argue that Kosovo is a special case because of the genocide it experienced under Serb rule and the overwhelming desire of its population for independence.

"There is no situation anywhere in the world that bears a resemblance to Kosovo," explained Daniel Fried, the US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, at a roundtable talk in March. "There is no place where the UN has been administering for seven – now close to eight – years. There is no case where NATO was forced to intervene to stop a massive process of ethnic cleansing."

Russia strongly opposed NATO's 1999 assault on an Orthodox, Slavic country with whom it has strong traditional ties. "The Russian support for Serbia is mostly about symbolism," says Masha Lipman, an expert with the Carnegie Center in Moscow. "Russians can go for years without thinking of Serbia, but when the US attacks a country that's so similar to Russia, this is quickly seen by Russians as something that could happen to them."

But beyond sympathy for Serbia, the Kremlin may be genuinely worried about rising nationalist pressures unilaterally to recognize breakaway statelets on post-Soviet turf. "Kosovo's independence will trigger a wave of appeals for similar treatment for Abkhazia and the others by Moscow, which will agitate the whole post-Soviet space," says Konstantin Zatullin, director of the official Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States. "Putin doesn't want this to happen, so he's pressing for a different solution to the Kosovo issue."

Though they are not well known in the West, the tiny entities clamoring for independence from Georgia, Moldova, and Azerbaijan each have their own narrative involving oppression by ethnic majorities, which is familiar to Russian audiences.

"We have more moral and legal grounds for independence than Kosovo has," insists Alan Pliyev, foreign minister of South Ossetia, which broke away from Georgia after a bitter civil war 15 years ago. "We survived genocide and think we have every right to be free."

Russian experts argue that a better solution for Kosovo might be to make it remain within Serbia and work for reconciliation between Albanians and Serbs, much as the warring ethnic groups of another former Yugoslav republic, Bosnia, have been treated under UN supervision.

"I don't believe the Kremlin wants to face the situation that a Kosovo independence precedent would create in the former USSR. It could lead to a disastrous chain reaction," says Ms. Lipman. "On the other hand, there is a rising mood of defiance in Russia and a feeling the West never listens to our concerns. In that case, the political pressure on Putin to react might be overwhelming. There are no good options here."

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