GOP support for Iraq fraying

Sen. Richard Lugar publicly broke rank with President Bush this week.

from the June 28, 2007 edition

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The White House sought to downplay Lugar's comments, saying they were nothing new. Indeed, Lugar has been known to be skeptical toward the surge from the beginning, and had conveyed his concerns to Bush in January privately. Another key senator on military matters, John Warner (R) of Virginia, also attended that meeting and praised Lugar for making a contribution to the debate with his Monday speech. All eyes are on Warner to see if he goes a step further and joins the chorus calling for a change of strategy.

Another key figure to watch is Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the top Republican in the Senate, with whom Lugar consulted before his Monday night speech. In late May, after Bush signed supplemental legislation funding the Iraq and Afghan wars, Senator McConnell said that "the handwriting is on the wall that we are going in a different direction in the fall, and I expect the president to lead it."

Democrats have been promoting the idea that Lugar's speech represents a turning point in the war, as the public grows increasingly impatient with daily US casualties and the overall level of violence in Iraq remains steady despite increases in US troops and military operations.

Experts on the politics of war caution against over-reading the importance of Lugar's speech, but agree that it's an important moment. "I don't know if it's a tipping point; I'm not sure if those exist," says John Mueller, a political scientist at Ohio State University in Columbus. "But it continues the slide, and other signals have been coming out, such as McConnell saying the 'handwriting is on the wall.' "

In his speech, Lugar said he did not doubt the assessments of military commanders reporting some progress in security, and he asserted that "we should attempt to preserve initiatives that have shown promise," such as engaging Sunni groups that are disaffected with Al Qaeda. But in concluding that the current course should not continue, he cited three factors: The political fragmentation of Iraq, the growing stress on the US military, and the constraints of the US political process.

On the first point, he expressed doubt that Iraqi factional leaders will be able to implement a political settlement in the short run, and sees "no convincing evidence that Iraqis will make the compromises necessary to solidify a functioning government and society…"

On the second point, he asserted that the window during which the US can continue to employ its troops in Iraq neighborhoods without damaging US military strength is closing.

On the third point, Lugar called for a bipartisan approach to fashioning a new Iraq strategy before the presidential campaign goes into full swing. He warned that if Bush pursues the surge strategy until the end of his administration, there would be "extreme risks" to US national security, including the possibility of a "poorly planned withdrawal from Iraq or possibly the broader Middle East region that could damage US interests for decades."

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