Could Pakistan fall to extremists?
Analysts say Washington's fears that Islamic extremists will take control of Pakistan are overblown.
from the June 19, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
Because of this, the military rulers who have run Pakistan for the other half of its existence have never dismantled the democratic system. Rather, they have bent it to their will to create a sheen of democracy.
To do this, however, Musharraf – like the three military rulers that preceded him – has relied on fringe religious parties.
These parties have deep grass-roots connections and formidable street power, making them a convenient political ally for military rulers, who otherwise would lack popular support bases of their own. In return, religious parties receive disproportionate influence.
"The first step to cleaning up extremists is to make sure extremists are marginalized," says Samina Ahmed of the International Crisis Group's office in Islamabad. "Musharraf is so dependent on them for propping up his political order."
"You've got to get rid of that prop," she adds.
Western officials say they are committed to doing this by working within the current regime.
"Washington should not press for Musharraf's ouster, since this year's elections are only the first step along the way to disengaging the military from domestic politics," writes Daniel Markey, a former State Department official, in the coming issue of Foreign Affairs magazine.
For Musharraf, extremism has its benefits
Yet here, the sense is that the Musharraf regime at times allows extremism to fester for its own ends.
"When it is a means of attracting money from the West, [the government] creates such issues," says Mufti Muhammad Naeem, the head of Binoria University, a prominent madrassah in Karachi.
Western officials strongly disagree with this assertion. "The position of the US has been consistent – we do not see any duplicity in the government of Pakistan," says the US diplomat in Islamabad.
To be sure, Musharraf has offered the US a measure of stability and a sure ally in uncertain times. But Pakistan has experience in managing political turmoil and transition, says Syeda Abida Hussain, ambassador to the US from 1991 to 1993.
"He's the fourth [military ruler] we've had," she says. "We've done all this before."
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