Clinton's greatest risk

Hillary Clinton could jeopardize her front-runner status by playing it too safe on tough issues.

from the June 18, 2007 edition

Page 1 of 2

Detroit - After watching New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) juggle pointed questions before nearly 1,000 union members here earlier this month, it was easy to imagine how she might pull away from her rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination. But it also was possible to see how she might stumble on the way.

Senator Clinton's performance at the town hall meeting – part of a series that the AFL-CIO is conducting with the Democratic candidates to help determine whether it will endorse one this fall – was solid but not gripping. She sounded expert on some answers but evasive on others. And she didn't erase all doubts. Yet most people in the crowd were impressed – in ways that suggest that Clinton's early lead in the polls rests on a solid foundation of confidence in her qualifications.

As the first woman to be a serious contender, Clinton might have confronted skepticism about her credibility as commander in chief, especially during wartime. But that's the dog that hasn't barked in the Democratic race. Primarily because of her years as first lady, it appears Democrats view her as more prepared for the presidency than her (male) rivals.

That's evident in national polls comparing Clinton with her top opponents, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. A recent ABC/Washington Post poll asked Democrats which candidate was the strongest leader, could best handle a crisis, and had the best experience for the presidency. On all three questions, more respondents picked Clinton than Senators Obama and Edwards together. Women preferred her most, but men also favored her on those tests.

Those personal assessments, more than any policy position, buttressed Clinton's support at the town hall meeting, too. Harry Murphy, who organizes for Unite Here, the textile and hotel workers union, said that although Obama "needs to get his feet a little wetter," he believes that Clinton "is tested ... [and] already knows the system." Clinton's admirers see her as not only experienced but tough. Margaret McCormick, a teacher who was visiting from Louisville, Ky., liked Edwards's message but was leaning toward Clinton because "when Hillary's backed into a corner, she does not give an inch." Joe Mazzarese, a United Auto Workers organizer, expressed the thought more pungently: "If I was going to get in a fight, even in a war, I'd want her on my side."

Scars can become marks of distinction, and for those assessing her, some of Clinton's darkest White House moments now add to her character. Mr. Murphy and others saw her failure to overhaul healthcare less as an indication of flawed political judgment than as valuable preparation for a rematch.

Page 1 | 2 | Next Page