Long path ahead on N. Korea's nukes
The north's invitation to nuclear inspectors is welcomed, but the US and S. Korea say more steps are needed to comply with February's six-party accord.
from the June 18, 2007 edition
Page 3 of 3
With settlement of "the BDA issue" and shutdown of the reactor, says Lee Kee-hong, Washington bureau chief of the newspaper Dong A Ilbo, "many people think the uranium program will be 10 times more difficult to resolve."
After North Korea shuts down the reactor, under IAEA supervision, Mr. Lee suggests that "nothing will happen in the Bush administration" – that is, until after January 2009, when a successor to President Bush is inaugurated.
Until then, analysts say that North Korea will bargain for rice and fertilizer shipments from South Korea and acceptance in the international finance system. South Korea suspended rice shipments pending shutdown of the reactor but has already promised to send 20,000 tons in emergency aid.
Paik Hak-soon, director of North Korean studies at the Sejong Institute, says North Korea is now likely to "demand financial talks with the US" – a step toward full diplomatic relations that North Korea would like.
Mr. Paik says that talks would "enhance North Korea's transparency" while the North fights for legitimacy in an international financial system that has shunned it ever since the US blacklisted Banco Delta Asia.
Kim Tae-woo, senior fellow at the Institute of Defense Analyses, affiliated with the South's defense ministry, sees the reactor shutdown as "not such a big deal." Rather, he says, "The big deal is the second stage, the disablement of the nuclear problem." North Korea, he posits, "will try to negotiate without giving up their nuclear weapons while demanding dialogue with the US."
Michael Breen, author of a biography of Kim Jong Il, says that a familiar stop-and-go pattern with no real ending in sight is possible. "We'll get some progress," he says, "and then there'll be another obstacle."
North Korea "is obligated to make some steps and then something will happen," he says. "There'll be an appearance of progress, and there'll be another obstacle."
In the end, says Mr. Breen, "I can't imagine they'll ever completely give up the nuclear option."
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