The US role in Mideast travails
Extremists' rise can be traced in part to Bush policy, analysts say.
from the June 18, 2007 edition
Page 2 of 4
The Bush administration itself is divided on Middle East issues, with some officials on the National Security staff and in the office of Vice President Dick Cheney viewing the violence in the region as unavoidable and probably necessary for arriving at a more stable and democratic Arab world. But forces aligned with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice insist on addressing the humanitarian needs of Arabs, such as the Palestinians in Gaza, as a way of heading off greater allegiance to radical forces.
President Bush had been expected to deliver a speech later this month on advances in the Middle East, timed to the fifth anniversary of his call in June 2002 for a Palestinian state "living side by side in peace" with Israel before the end of his presidency.
That speech is now in doubt, according to administration sources. But Bush will have an opportunity to address regional issues when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meets with him at the White House on Tuesday.
No doubt, before the Middle East can reach stability, much work remains to be done. "Far from being 'clarifying moments,' what we are witnessing are deepening institutional crises that are shaking the very foundation of Middle East governance and society," says Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East expert at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, N.Y. "Rather than democracy's advance, we have deepening and widening fault lines shaking Muslim and Arab society."
According to Mr. Gerges, who has spent the past year traveling throughout the region, three "pivotal" fault lines are making for an increasingly unstable region: a widening gap between a tiny elite and growing legions of poor; a related gap between the rulers of authoritarian regimes and the governed; and the relatively recent but expanding Shiite-Sunni divide.
In many of the jarring events taking place, some analysts see an overarching confrontation between established powers backed by the US and more radical forces promoted by Iran and elements of Al Qaeda. "What we're seeing throughout the region are a lot of proxy battles," says Jon Alterman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "And the bad guys in many cases are winning."
The reasons for the region's radicalization and deterioration are not new, but Mr. Alterman cites a handful of current factors he says are contributors:
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