In bellwether states, Mitt Romney surges ahead

The former governor of Massachusetts is now consistently running first in most Iowa and New Hampshire polls.

from the June 15, 2007 edition

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In Iowa, polls are harder to decipher in New Hampshire, because with caucuses – the state's nominating vehicle, which typically attract only the most dedicated voters – it's more difficult to predict who will turn out. Still, analysts take seriously the fact that Romney shot into the lead last month in the Des Moines Register poll with 30 percent, ahead of McCain and Giuliani (18 and 17 percent). The latter two subsequently announced they would not take part in the traditional Iowa straw poll in August, a nonbinding event that in the past has winnowed the Republican field. McCain and Giuliani say they will still compete in the Iowa caucuses, but there's a risk that in snubbing the straw poll, a fundraiser for the state GOP, they have insulted the party faithful of Iowa.

"I suspect there will be a bit of a backlash, probably not too much, but it certainly didn't improve their prospects," says Peverill Squire, a political scientist at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa.

A victory in the Iowa caucuses, and then a solid showing in the new Nevada caucuses a few days later, would give Romney a significant wind at his back heading into the New Hampshire primary, his home turf. An Iowa victory would also show that Romney has been able to overcome concerns of religious conservative voters, who are strong in the Iowa GOP. Romney's recent conversion to conservative positions on social issues has left some conservatives skeptical of Romney. His Mormon faith also led to questions over whether some voters would hesitate to vote for him, but pollsters are not seeing evidence so far that that's a major sticking point.

Steering committee on faith, values

On Wednesday, Romney announced his National Faith and Values Steering Committee, which did not include any of the most significant leaders of the Christian conservative movement – but did include some noteworthy names nevertheless. One is Jay Sekulow, a legal activist associated with Pat Robertson. Another is James Bopp, a lawyer who often argues the religious right's most significant cases in the Supreme Court.

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